NEW DELHI (TIP): In a different approach for rainfall forecast, scientists of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER) have used variations in sea temperatures to predict monsoon in the subcontinent.

A team from the Seasonal Prediction Group of IITM and IISER, Pune used historical meteorological data and modern modelling techniques to predict monsoon pattern.

They have investigated how variations (anomalies) of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the extra-tropical, that is temperate, latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, affected the Asian monsoon rainfall.

Traditionally, seasonal rainfall in the tropics have been predicted based on extended periods of warm-cold cycles of sea surface temperatures of the tropical central and eastern Pacific ocean. This is referred to as the slow coupled ocean-atmosphere mode called the El Nino and Southern Oscillation

or ENSO. The cycles develop off the western coast of South America and cause a broad range of climatic changes across the tropics and subtropics, through a process dubbed as ‘teleconnection’.