Month: May 2025

OTTAWA (TIP): Canada is rapidly reshaping its aviation ties with the US as declining travel demand, rising diplomatic tensions, and shifting consumer preferences drive major airlines—Air Canada, WestJet, Porter, and Flair—to slash routes to key U.S. cities including San Francisco, Miami, New York, and Washington. With a significant drop in both leisure and business travel from Canada to the U.S., carriers are now reallocating capacity toward Europe, where demand remains strong and political conditions are more favorable.

Cross-Border Travel in Decline

In recent months, both business and leisure travel from Canada to the United States have seen a dramatic downturn. Data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) shows that entries from the northern border fell by 12.5% in February and a further 18% in March, indicating sustained contraction in cross-border movement. This retreat comes amid growing discomfort among Canadian travelers, fueled by strict U.S. border enforcement, electronic device inspections, and political rhetoric painting Canada as “the 51st state.”

Further compounding this decline, Flight Centre Travel Group Canada reported that Canadian business travel to the United States plummeted by 40% in the early months of 2025. Tourism Economics forecasts a 15.2% decline in international visitors to the U.S. this year alone, a downturn echoed by decreased arrivals from key European markets like Germany and Spain—down 30% and 25%, respectively, in March.

Political Fallout Behind the Travel Freeze

The downturn in U.S.-bound travel from Canada coincides with an atmosphere of political friction. While President Donald Trump dismissed concerns in an April 27 media exchange—calling the tourism slowdown “not a big deal”—his rhetoric and policy decisions have sent ripples through bilateral travel flows. Two days after denying the downturn, Trump stated in an ABC interview that “tourism is way up,” a claim that was fact-checked and corrected live on air.

Meanwhile, Canada has issued updated travel advisories cautioning citizens about “strict enforcement” at U.S. borders and warning of increased scrutiny of electronic devices. Similar advisories have been issued by France, Belgium, Finland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom, reinforcing the perception of heightened tension and risk when entering the United States.

Air Canada Leads Pullback from the U.S.

Air Canada has taken the most prominent steps to scale back its U.S. operations. In 2024, the airline had ramped up transborder service, including frequent flights between Montréal–Trudeau International Airport (YUL) and San Francisco International Airport (SFO), with up to three daily rotations during peak summer months. However, facing reduced demand, the airline will now revert to a single daily flight, cutting previously scheduled frequencies.

These cuts follow earlier reductions to routes linking Vancouver International Airport (YVR) with Miami, Houston, and Washington. Mark Galardo, Air Canada’s Executive Vice President of Revenue and Network Planning, noted that the airline is proactively “moving capacity into other sectors where we see strength,” referring specifically to the European market.

WestJet Cancels More US Routes

WestJet, another major Canadian airline, has also made decisive cuts to its U.S. schedule. The airline recently canceled its planned Vancouver–Austin route, which was set to launch in May 2025, citing a “downward shift in demand.” This follows previous cancellations of routes from Calgary to New York-LaGuardia and from Edmonton to Orlando.

Rather than attempting to revive faltering U.S. services, WestJet is pivoting to Europe. The airline plans to increase its footprint across popular transatlantic destinations, anticipating stronger seasonal demand and more favorable geopolitical conditions.

Porter Airlines Cuts Frequencies and Refocuses on Canada

Porter Airlines, a growing player in Canada’s mid-size market, has implemented “targeted frequency reductions” on select U.S. routes due to softening demand. At the same time, the airline is expanding its domestic Canadian network, increasing capacity from 75% to 80%. Interestingly, while still maintaining some Canada–U.S. service, Porter has paused marketing campaigns aimed at promoting U.S. travel, reflecting traveler hesitation and internal reassessment of brand priorities amid current conditions.

Despite the cuts, Porter’s overall Canada–U.S. capacity remains 25% higher than last year, showing the airline’s continued interest in maintaining strategic corridors even as broader retrenchments occur.

Flair Airlines Retreats and Reshuffles

Flair Airlines, Canada’s low-cost carrier, has reduced more than a third of its U.S. flights in response to what executives describe as a significant drop in bookings. The airline is redirecting its operations toward more stable domestic and international markets. While the United States was once a key target for affordable getaway options, Flair now sees better opportunities in intra-Canada routes and possibly new destinations outside North America.

European Destinations Rise in Priority

The strategic repositioning of Canadian carriers isn’t just about pulling back from the U.S.—it’s about chasing growth where it exists. Across all four airlines, a clear trend is emerging: growing investment in European routes.

Air Canada has announced additional frequencies and new seasonal routes to major European destinations, including Paris, Rome, and Frankfurt. WestJet has expanded its transatlantic operations with new service to London Gatwick and Dublin. These routes have historically performed well in the summer months and are viewed as high-potential markets, especially as post-pandemic travel demand rebounds strongly across the continent.

The trend aligns with what many analysts now call a “transatlantic rebalancing,” where airlines reallocate limited fleet resources to higher-yield, lower-friction travel corridors.

Economic Costs of the Decline

The U.S. Travel Association warns that even a 10% drop in Canadian tourism could cost the U.S. economy over $2.1 billion and result in the loss of more than 140,000 jobs. Given the current trajectory, the actual decline may exceed that threshold. Cities like San Francisco, Miami, New York, Orlando, Houston, and Washington—which have traditionally benefited from steady Canadian visitor traffic—are already seeing fewer arrivals, empty hotel rooms, and reduced spending in restaurants, attractions, and retail.

The impact extends to airlines as well. U.S. carriers that once enjoyed strong demand from Canadian cities are now seeing softer load factors on incoming flights. Codeshare partnerships with Canadian airlines are also being re-evaluated, and some U.S. airlines have begun to reduce marketing campaigns targeting Canadian customers.

Traveler Sentiment and Safety Concerns

Beyond economics and schedules, the freeze in travel is also psychological. Canadian travelers increasingly cite discomfort with political instability and unpredictable border interactions as reasons for deferring U.S. trips. The Canadian government’s advisory, which highlights increased scrutiny at ports of entry—including searches of electronic devices—has only amplified these concerns.

Europe, by contrast, is perceived as safer, more welcoming, and culturally enriching, particularly for leisure travel. The absence of political hostility, coupled with efficient entry policies and strong tourism recovery plans, makes Europe an attractive pivot point for Canadian travel planners and airlines alike.

Canada is freezing air travel links to the US as Air Canada, WestJet, Porter, and Flair slash routes to major cities like San Francisco, Miami, New York, and Washington in response to political tensions, falling demand, and strict US border scrutiny. Redirecting capacity to Europe, the airlines are capitalizing on rising transatlantic travel interest and more favorable market conditions.

A Restructured Future for Canada–US Air Travel?

The sharp reduction in flights from Canada to the U.S. by four major airlines—Air Canada, WestJet, Porter, and Flair—signals a significant shift in travel priorities for 2025. While the move reflects short-term market conditions and geopolitical tensions, it may also indicate long-term structural change. Airlines are proving more agile in capacity planning, ready to pivot to new markets in response to volatility.

Unless political relations improve and traveler confidence is restored, Canada–U.S. air travel may not return to previous highs anytime soon. In the meantime, Europe stands to benefit from the realignment as Canadian carriers tap into surging demand across the Atlantic.

Canadian airlines are not just adjusting routes—they are signaling a new era in international air strategy. Faced with declining demand and mounting political tensions, Air Canada, WestJet, Porter, and Flair have opted to freeze expansion into the U.S. and reroute their focus toward the robust, receptive skies of Europe. The ripple effects will be felt across both continents—changing the way Canadians travel, the cities they connect with, and the airlines that shape their global journeys.

(Source: Travel & Tour World)