NEW DELHI (TIP): The BJP could reach its highest tally ever and the Congress its lowest point, giving the NDA the best chance of forming the government after the Lok Sabha polls, though well short of a majority. That’s the big picture emerging from the Times Now-CVoter national projection poll released on February 13. The poll projected that the BJP would win 202 seats if the elections were held now and its allies another 25, giving the NDA 227 seats in the 543-member LS.
The Congress, in sharp contrast, would sink to just 89 and even with 12 seats from its allies the UPA would barely cross the 100 mark, it predicted. With “others” likely to win 215 seats and many of them having joined hands with the BJP in the past, that would be very good news for those rooting for Narendra Modi as prime minister. In terms of vote shares, the NDA is estimated to win 36%, the UPA 22% and others 42%. AAP, whose performance in its first LS polls will be closely watched, is projected to win a total of seven seats, four of them from outside Delhi.
It’s vote share, the poll suggests would be about 8%, which would be larger than the vote share of any party other than the Congress or BJP in any recent LS election. Among the parties currently not aligned to either the Congress or the BJP parties, the AIADMK and the Left – which are in an alliance — are projected to win 27 seats each, the Trinamool Congress 24, the BSP 21 and SP 20. The decline in the Congress tally from 206 in 2009 to just 89 in the latest poll is a result of a pan-India collapse, with few exceptions. In Andhra Pradesh, the state that gave the Congress its biggest chunk of MPs (33) last time, the party is projected to win a mere six seats.
Similarly, Uttar Pradesh could see just four Congress MPs against 21 last time and Rajasthan four against 20. States that are seen as bucking this trend are Karnataka – 14 against six – Chhattisgarh (three against one) and Orissa (seven against six). In contrast, the BJP’s tally is seen to be rising in virtually all the states where it is a serious contender barring the three exceptions already mentioned. The saffron party’s biggest gains are projected to come from Uttar Pradesh – 34 against 10 – Rajasthan (21 against four) and Bihar (21 against 12).
Combined with more modest gains in other states, including those where it did well even last time, these are expected to raise the BJP’s tally by 86 seats from the 116 it won in 2009. Among the others, significant gainers are the AIADMK, up from nine to 27; YSR Congress, from nil to 13; RJD, from four to 12; and TRS, from two to 10. The biggest losers, the poll predicts, are likely to be the JD(U), down from 20 to just five; DMK, from 18 to five; and NCP, from nine to five. AAP’s seven seats, according to the poll, will include three from Delhi and one each from Haryana, Maharashtra, Karnataka and the union territories.
FOLLOWING IS THE STATE-WISE PREDICTION FOR THE LOK SABHA ELECTIONS
ANDHRA PRADESH (42): Cong-6, BJP- 2, TDP-10, TRS-10, YSR-13, OTH- 1
ARUNACHAL PRADESH (2): Cong-1, BJP-1
ASSAM (14): Cong- 7, BJP-5, AUDP- 1, AGP- 0, BPF- 1, OTH-0
BIHAR (40): Cong- 1, BJP-21, JD(U)- 5, RJD- 12, LJP- 1, OTH- 0
CHHATISGARH (11): Cong- 3, BJP- 8, OTH- 0
DELHI (7): Cong- 0, BJP- 4, AAP- 3, OTH-0 Goa (2); Cong- 1, BJP- 1, OTH- 0
GUJARAT (26): Cong- 4, BJP- 22, OTH-0
HARYANA (10): Cong- 1, BJP, 6, INLD- 1, AAP- 1, HJC- 1, OTH-O
HIMACHAL PRADESH (4): Cong- 1, BJP- 3, OTH-0
JAMMU AND KASHMIR (6): Cong- 1, BJP- 2, NC-1, PDP-2, OTH-0
JHARKHAND (14): Cong- 1, BJP- 8, JMM-2, JVM- 2, OTH- 0
KARNATAKA (28): Cong- 14, BJP- 11, JD(S)- 2, AAP- 1, OTH-0
KERALA (20): Cong- 7, BJP- 1, LEFT- 9, IUMC- 2, KC (M)- 1, OTH-0
MADHYA PRADESH (29): Cong-5, BJP- 24, BSP- 0, OTH-0
MAHARASTRA (48): Cong-8, BJP- 15, NCP- 5, SS- 15, MNS-1, OTH-4
MANIPUR (2): Cong-1, BJP-1
MEGHALAYA (2): Cong- 1, NCP- 0 , NPP- 1, OTH-0
MIZORAM (1): Cong- 1, OTH-0
NAGALAND (1): Cong- 0, NPF- 1, OTH-0
ODISHA (21): Cong- 7, BJP- 2, BJD- 12, CPI- 0, OTH-0
PUNJAB (13): Cong- 6, BJP-2, SAD- 5, OTH-0
RAJASTHAN (25): Cong-4, BJP- 21, OTH-0
SIKKIM (1): Cong- 0, SDF- 1, OTH-0
TAMIL NADU (39): Cong-1, DMK- 5, AIADMK- 27, LEFT-2, MDMK- 1, OTH-0
TRIPURA (2): Cong- 0, CPI (M)- 2, OTH-0
UTTAR PRADESH (80): Cong- 4, BJP- 34, SP- 20, BSP- 21, RLD- 1, OTH-0
UTTARAKHAND (5): Cong-0, BJP-5
WEST BENGAL (42): Cong- 2, BJP- 1, TMC- 24, LEFT- 14, SUCI-0, OTH-1