Youth interest in voting has hit its lowest since 2000, GALLUP reports

Does Ohio provide a model?

The shy Trump vote is bigger this year…and who falls into this category should terrify Democrats.  I will say it again, folks.  The polling is skewed.  It is a mess.  Either we are right to be highly skeptical and Trump wins an Electoral College landslide, or the pollsters are right and Biden wins landslide.  Young Americans are not excited about this election at all.  They are not planning on voting.  Gallup is reporting the youth interest in voting this cycle has hit its lowest since 2000.  That is in keeping with the results from Democracy Institute’s Patrick Basham, whose polling data, which has been mentioned in The Washington Times and Forbes, suggests there will be one million fewer young people voting this cycle.   Hill-Harris X Research shows younger voters are consistently more likely to say they do not plan to vote.

Basham spoke with Joseph Cotto about his new data.  Pollwatch had a good thread summarizing the interview.  Democracy Institute’s poll had a sample size of 1500 voters, where Trump leads Joe Biden by one point.  He also noted that the “shy Trump” vote is very much alive and will be bigger this time.  Suburban white women and urban black women are the two groups that are most likely to fall into the shy category for the 2020 cycle.  That latter part should shake Democrats to their core.  And as for Florida, a state that Biden must carry, it could already be out of his reach.  Basham notes Trump cannot fall asleep at the wheel, but things are becoming more comfortable for him in the Sunshine State.  And based on some recent polling from the state, it looks like the tide has shifted solidly in favor of Trump.

The outcome of Election Day 2020 would seem to be a foregone conclusion if the latest national and battleground polls are any guide as to whether President trump will win in his reelection bid.

However, the GALLUP poll has just released the results of a new survey that suggests President Trump might have a better shot than you would think.

Most Americans responded positively to the survey question asking whether they feel better off now than they did four years ago.

Trump’s odds of winning reelection seem to be growing slimmer by the day—though, it is worth remembering that we have also seen this movie play out before.  This is not the first time that Trump has been in this predicament.

DOES OHIO PROVIDE A MODEL FOR PRESIDENTIAL VICTORY?

No Republican has won the Presidency without winning Ohio. Franklin D Roosevelt in 1944, and John F Kennedy in 1960 won without winning Ohio.    President Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016.  He accomplished this in spite of stiff opposition from Republican Governor John Kasich.  So far, all indications are Trump will easily win Ohio.  Biden has been visiting Ohio but his reception has been poor.   If Trump wins Ohio like in 2016, it will influence his outcome in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

POINT OF CAUTION IN READING POLLS SPONSORED BY THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA:   

All these pollsters have been interviewing registered voters  — there are much more registered Democrats than Republicans.   Polling most likely voters may give a better clue.  The undecideds and third parties comprise 10% of final voters.

(Ven Parameswaran, Chairman, Asian American Republican Committee (Founded 1988), lives in Scarsdale, NY. He can be reached at  vpwaren@gmail.com)