All Eyes are now on New Hampshire

DES MOINES (TIP): The races for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations are taking shape now that brave Iowans have had their say.

In some cases, the results confirmed conventional wisdom. In others, it totally reshaped it.

For the Republicans, it was Ted Cruz with (28%) who bested Donald Trump who got 24% and Marco Rubio who surprisingly cut in to the vote share of Donald Trump to get an unexpected 23%.

For the Democrats, it was a much keener competition between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders who were tied at 50%.

Here are five things we learned after a remarkable evening in America’s heartland.

donald trump1. Donald Trump isn’t untouchable – For the past few months it seemed as though the New York real estate mogul had become an unrivalled political savant. Every move he made, no matter how questionable, only strengthened his standing among conservative voters.

That bubble, however, has burst. Despite leading in the Iowa polls for the past several weeks, Mr. Trump was bested by rival Ted Cruz on caucus night. In the end Mr. Trump’s much-heralded cadre of new voters didn’t show up in the predicted numbers and Mr. Cruz’s formidable ground game, backed by strong evangelical support, carried the day.

This hardly means it’s the end for Mr. Trump. He may well hold onto his large lead in New Hampshire, a state where the conservative voters often embrace the renegade outsider, and find success in the Southern primaries that follow. The notion that the New Yorker could steamroll his way to the Republican nomination, however, has now been firmly dispelled.

marco rubio2. Marco Rubio has given the establishment hope – Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s speech in Iowa on Monday night sounded more like a victory celebration than the concession speech of a third-place finisher. By finishing with 23% of the vote, however – a hair’s breadth from second-place Trump – Mr. Rubio shattered pre-caucus expectations.

This is the kind of Iowa result that candidates like New Jersey’s Chris Christie, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Ohio Governor John Kasich were dreading. They have placed all their hopes in New Hampshire, and now they’ll have to face off against a man who has the political wind at his back.

This is the kind of Iowa result that candidates like New Jersey’s Chris Christie, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Ohio Governor John Kasich were dreading. They have placed all their hopes in New Hampshire, and now they’ll have to face off against a man who has the political wind at his back.

The polls for Mr. Rubio in the coming states haven’t looked particularly encouraging, but that could quickly change. And even if he suffers setbacks in the Southern states that follow New Hampshire, he likely will have the resources to wage a long fight for the nomination.

Democrats3. The Democrats are in a dogfight – At this point it comes as little surprise that Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton finished in a virtual tie in Iowa – polls had been indicating such a result was likely.

Nevertheless, the outcome marks a significant achievement for Mr. Sanders, who was polling in single digits in Iowa six months ago.

Mrs. Clinton is simply not going to be able to deliver the knockout punch to her rival the way she once had hoped. Instead, she faces a likely defeat in New Hampshire -where the Vermonter is strong – and then a protracted fight across the country that could last at least through March.

She still has the greater financial resources and a much more developed campaign infrastructure, but she had those advantages in Iowa as well. The electorate will change, however – becoming more moderate and more ethnically diverse. There is more hospitable ground ahead for Mrs. Clinton – but a nomination victory, if it comes, will take time to realize.

ted cruz4. Ted Cruz is built to last – If Mr. Cruz had been defeated in Iowa it would have been a devastating blow to his campaign. He had raised expectations of a victory in the caucuses and heralded it as proof that he could build a coalition of evangelical, grass-roots Tea Party and libertarian voters.

As it turns out, that coalition exists – and it will likely re-emerge after New Hampshire, as South Carolina and other Southern states hold their primary contests.

Mr. Cruz has nearly $20m in campaign cash on hand and supporting political committees with even greater resources. He’s built a political machine that can operate through the entire primary calendar and, if necessary, wage a two-front battle with Mr. Trump and an establishment-backed candidate like Mr. Rubio.

In his victory speech on Monday night, Mr. Cruz credited his grass-roots organization – as he should – but he also gave Republicans a look at a more moderate, general-election version of himself. He’ll need to convince his party that he is a candidate who can beat the Democrats in November. This was his first step toward making that pitch.

5. The field is about to thin dramatically – Democrat Martin O’Malley is gone, as is Republican Mike Huckabee & Rand Paul and – in all likelihood, Rick Santorum.

There were rumors abounded that Ben Carson was poised to exit. Although his camp quickly denied this, the retired surgeon’s 9% performance in a state that once viewed him as a front-runner likely means the end is near.

Carly Fiorina’s bid is on life support, and Rand Paul – at one point thought to be a contender for the nomination – garnered less than 5%, a far cry from his father’s 21%in Iowa just four years ago.

New Hampshire will likely cull the herd even further, threatening the future of candidates like Mr. Bush, Mr. Christie and Mr. Kasich if they can’t slow Mr. Rubio’s momentum.

The Republican race for the nomination isn’t likely to end anytime soon, but there are about to be a lot fewer candidates on the debate stage in the coming weeks.

Also-Rans: 2016 Presidential Race – These are the candidates who have dropped out of the 2016 presidential race. Scott Walker (R),Rand Paul (R), Rick Perry (R), Mike Huckabee (R), Lindsey Graham (R), Bobby Jindal (R), Martin O’Malley (D),George Pataki (R), Rick Santorum R), Jim Webb (D).