Trump 2.0 won’t be more of the same

The world has changed since his previous tenancy at the White House

“India, fortunately, has had a good equation with President Trump. Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar have retained links with people around Trump. However, the Indian leadership should proceed on the premise that Trump 2.0 will, in all probability, be unlike Trump 1.0. The policy areas of interest to India where Trump’s transactionalism and ‘America First’ approach could pose challenges would be trade, immigration and climate change. I am not a great enthusiast of a liberal US visa policy, given that it has contributed to the drain of talent from India. But trade may pose a challenge if some of Trump’s old advisers, especially people like former US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, are back in office.”

No election to a public office anywhere in the world attracts as much global attention as that to the office of the President of the United States of America. The US remains the world’s most consequential nation. Its President is the most powerful person in the world, presiding over the biggest economy, the biggest technological and scientific base and the biggest armed forces. It is, however, not yet ready to elect a woman as its President. Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris despite his misogynistic personality. In politics dominated by race and class, gender took a back seat. Opinion polls once again went off on a tangent.

It is best that friends like Modi stay home for a while and allow US allies, especially the Europeans, to finish their anxious calls on the White House.

From Berlin to Tokyo, Moscow to Beijing, Tel Aviv to Tehran and, indeed, New Delhi, every government will closely watch Trump’s selection of his team. This is because even though this is his second term, he has dumped many colleagues from the past and many have deserted him. The world will take a new measure of Trump both because there will be new faces around the President and because the world has changed since his previous tenancy at the White House.

At home, Trump’s first charge would be to ensure stability and give hope to his less privileged supporters, especially the working class. The US economy is presently chugging along well, with economic growth at over 2 per cent; however, unemployment remains a concern for Trump’s core constituents. How he will balance the greed of his own class of millionaires and billionaires and the need of his low-income and socially and economically depressed supporters remains to be seen.

Overseas, Trump’s hands will be full resolving conflicts in Europe and West Asia. He has promised to break out of the ‘Washington Consensus’ on economic and foreign policy. He is expected to reach out to Russia’s Vladimir Putin. He may stay the course getting tough with China, imposing high tariffs, but he may also seek a modus vivendi. In West Asia, he is expected to target Iran, perhaps pushing for regime change, but he may also keep Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu on a short leash.

Each of these expected actions will have long-term consequences for the US and the world, for Trump has promised to ‘Make America Great Again’ within the next four years. The trillion-dollar question is whether Trump will push for a change in the Constitution to seek a third term in office. At any rate, Trump 2.0 should be expected to be different from Trump 1.0 because age and time are not on his side.

While Trump could have a lasting impact on how America is governed, the US capacity to fashion a world in its vision and after its preference is increasingly limited. The US will have to work with allies and friends. Both Europe and Japan have been nervous about a Trump presidency. Last time round, Europe had Angela Merkel and Japan had Shinzo Abe. Right now, there is no European or East Asian leader capable of standing up to Trump or reining him in. They will, perhaps, fall in line.

Whether Putin secures a breather and Volodymyr Zelenskyy is asked to pipe down will depend on how much of a control Trump and his advisers secure on the US ‘deep state’ and the military-industrial complex, the movers and shakers behind the Joe Biden approach to Russia. One should expect, however, that both Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping will, at least initially, seek to build bridges with the Trump administration. Ironically and counter-intuitively, Trump’s first year in office may be a quieter one globally than Biden’s last year.

India, fortunately, has had a good equation with President Trump. Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar have retained links with people around Trump. However, the Indian leadership should proceed on the premise that Trump 2.0 will, in all probability, be unlike Trump 1.0. The policy areas of interest to India where Trump’s transactionalism and ‘America First’ approach could pose challenges would be trade, immigration and climate change. I am not a great enthusiast of a liberal US visa policy, given that it has contributed to the drain of talent from India. But trade may pose a challenge if some of Trump’s old advisers, especially people like former US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, are back in office.

India will continue to keep the US engaged in buying defense equipment and linking up through supply chains to the US. However, the Modi government would be well advised to tread carefully and not get caught in US political crosshairs, as it has done in these past four years. Perhaps the Gurpatwant Singh Pannun case will not go away since it is already in the courts. The ripples from that case will continue to touch Indian shores.

During Trump 1.0, Shinzo Abe was the first to knock on the doors of the White House, extending a friendly hand, flattering an egomaniac and selling ideas like Quad that benefited India. Abe was a statesman and a friend of India. His successors have been mere politicians, that too beleaguered ones and not too India-friendly. Trump may be friendly towards India, but this country is unlikely to be his immediate priority. It is best that friends like Modi stay home for a while and allow US allies, especially the Europeans, to finish their anxious calls on the White House.

Trump has declared that he is returning to the White House because God has saved him. Political leaders who view themselves as ‘chosen by God and Destiny’ often do more harm than good. It is best to let them calm down and get their hands dirty before being too eager to demonstrate one’s friendship. 

(Sanjaya Baru is a political commentator and policy analyst. He is Distinguished Fellow at United Service Institution of India, New Delhi)