- By Prabhjot Singh
TORONTO (TIP): After Foreign Minister Anita Indira Anand broke the ice by visiting India early this month, the decks are now being cleared for the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, to accept an invitation from his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, to participate in the AI summit in New Delhi next February.
The move is being described as a sincere effort on the part of both Mark Carney and Narendra Modi to repair fractured diplomatic relations and focus on trade and investment opportunities amid a tariff war with the United States. Although India and Canada have missed several deadlines to reach the bilateral trade target of surpassing $ 15 billion annually over the past couple of decades, the two countries, with a history of hot and cold relations, could now feel the $50 billion mark attainable.
In an interview with a leading Canadian newspaper, the Indian High Commissioner to Canada, Dinesh Patnaik, revealed that India has invited Mark Carney for talks with Narendra Modi early in the New Year.
The visit of the Canadian PM to India could open doors to a comprehensive economic and free trade partnership. Incidentally, India and Canada have been in constant talks over signing a free trade agreement for more than 15 years now.
Two of his immediate predecessors – Stephen Harper (Conservative) and Justin Trudeau (Liberal) – visited India twice during their tenures as Prime Minister of Canada. Jean Chretien and Paul Martin (both Liberals), too, visited India as Prime Ministers of Canada.
DR Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi, too, visited Canada while the latter’s second visit was only early this year during the G7 Leaders’ summit in Alberta.
Until last year, the bilateral trade between India and Canada used to hover around $11-12 billion annually. In 2024, it recorded a major jump by 12.7 billion to touch 23.6 billion.
In his interview with the Canadian newspaper, Dinesh Patnaik said:” If Canada wants to start negotiations, we would be more than happy to speed up things to do it in a fast way. You are looking at a minimum of $50 billion if we allow the proper environment for it.
Dinesh Patnaik said in the interview that India wants an early visit of the PM to India, saying “it is a relationship we do not want to go downhill.”
Free trade talks had reached the final stages before differences started cropping up. Canadians wanted security of investments, and India was promising fertile land for investments with all possible infrastructure. Relations went sour in June 2023 following the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar outside a Sikh temple in Surrey. Nijjar, a Canadian national, was on the wanted list of India. After his killing outside a Sikh temple, the then Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused the Indian Government led by Narendra Modi of playing a role in the killing of a Canadian on Canadian soil.
Canada also expelled India’s High Commissioner and five other diplomats. PM Justin Trudeau even made a statement in the House of Commons that there was a “credible allegation” of India’s direct involvement in the spurt of terrorist crime on Canadian soil. The RCMP had said at that time that it had evidence that Indian government agents had been linked to homicides, extortion and other violent activities in Canada. The name of Larence Bishnoi figured prominently in the RCMP and Liberal Government statements.
Interestingly, the new Liberal Government of Mark Carney also declared Lawrence Bishnoi’s outfit a terrorist outfit.
A diplomatic spat followed that saw both countries expelling the diplomats of each other, besides reducing the strength of diplomatic missions substantially. Allegations and counter-allegations flew freely, and a sense of uncertainty and fear gripped the large Indo-Canadian community, with the Government of India blaming its counterpart for sheltering, supporting and siding with the pro-Khalistan elements.
Though India strongly denied the allegations and responded with tit-for-tat in diplomatic expulsions.
It is only during the past few weeks that both India and Canada have had in place their new High Commissioners.
Incidentally, where India-Canada relations started returning to normalcy, both India and Canada got involved in tough “tariff war” controversies with the US President, Donald Trump. While trade relations with the US were impacted, a new venue opened up for both Canada and India to further their bilateral relations and take them to new heights.
Dinesh Patnaik said in his interview that India is keen to buy Canadian oil and gas, nuclear power, battery storage, fertilizers, processed food and agricultural products. India, he says, is also open for increased cooperation on AI and quantum computing.
Besides India, Canada is also eyeing the Indo-Pacific for expanding its trade. Before visiting India next year, Mark Carney has confirmed his visit to India Pacific later this month.
Mark Carney announced that he will travel to Malaysia, Singapore, and the Republic of Korea from October 24 to November 1, 2025, to deepen trade relationships in the Indo-Pacific region, shore up defense partnerships, and unlock new opportunities for Canadian workers and businesses.
Canada is convinced that the global trade landscape is rapidly changing. In the face of this upheaval, Canada’s new government is focused on “transforming our economy from one that is reliant on a single trade partner to one that is stronger and more resilient to global shocks. To that end, a core mission of the government is to diversify and strengthen Canada’s trade partnerships.”
(Prabhjot Singh is a Toronto-based senior journalist)
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