The Indian Panorama

Tag: CMIE

  • ‘Pandemic curbs hit labour market; jobless rate at 13%’

    ‘Pandemic curbs hit labour market; jobless rate at 13%’

    New Delhi (TIP): The labour market is in its worst condition since the nationwide lockdown months of April and May 2020, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said in a report. As per CMIE data, the unemployment rate that reached 11.9 per cent in May, continued to rise into early June.

    The 30-day moving average unemployment rate, as of June 6, was 13 per cent.

    Separately, in the Consumer Pyramids Households Survey released by CMIE for January-April 2021, it noted that office workers have been relatively safer than non-office workers during the pandemic, while the agricultural sector is overheated.

    The non-office workers’ employment rose to 36 million during January-April after falling to 32 million (September-December 2020) and 31 million (May-August 2020) from 41 million (January-April 2020). Agricultural sector’s employment stood at 153 million each in January-April and September-December 2020, and at 157 million in May-August 2020, much higher than 144 million level seen a year ago in January-April 2020.

    Consumption demand, picked up in September-December 2020, but then dropped again in January-April 2021, with demand for heavy appliances the worst hit.

    Last four weeks have seen a particularly sharp deterioration in labour market conditions. “The downturn began in the week ended May 16. During this week, the labour participation rate was at 40.5 per cent, which was higher by a whisker than the average 40.4 per cent rate around which this ratio has been hovering for several months since the 2020 lockdown,” CMIE’s CEO Mahesh Vyas said in the report.

  • India’s unemployment rate may rise to 8%: CMIE

    India’s unemployment rate may rise to 8%: CMIE

    As states go into lockdowns and impose restrictions amid the second wave of Covid-19, the unemployment rate in April is likely to increase to nearly 8 per cent from 6.5 per cent in March, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).

    CMIE’s CEO Mahesh Vyas said that fast frequency labour statistics indicate that labour market conditions have been deteriorating in April 2021.

    “The labour participation rate (LPR) looks unlikely to fall in April. The 30-day moving average LPR indicates that the ratio was rising till April 15 when it peaked at 40.8 per cent. Then it started falling, but it is unlikely to fall to a level lower than that of March 2021,” he said.

    Unless there is an unusual bounce in the last week, the April LPR is likely to stabilise at its March level of 40.2 per cent, as per CMIE.

    US economy grows at 6.4% in March quarter

    The US economy grew at a brisk 6.4% annual rate last quarter — a show of strength fuelled by government aid and declining viral cases that could drive further gains as the nation rebounds with unusual speed from the pandemic recession.

    Thursday’s report from the Commerce Department estimated the nation’s GDP accelerated in the January-March quarter from a 4.3% annual gain in the final quarter of 2020.

    Growth in the current April-June period is expected to be faster still, potentially reaching a 10% annual pace or more, led by an increase in people willing and able to travel, shop, dine out and otherwise resume their spending habits.