The Indian Panorama

Tag: Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden

  • Biden wins, according to polls sponsored by the mainstream media; Trafalgar poll predicts Trump will win

    Biden wins, according to polls sponsored by the mainstream media; Trafalgar poll predicts Trump will win

    By Ven Parameswaran

    There are only 12 days to the Presidential election on November 3, 2020.  Everyone is interested in knowing who has better chances to win – President Trump or former Vice President Biden.    This discussion and speculation will keep on going till the election.

    All the TV networks including Fox, CBS, ABC, NBC, CNN and the mainstream media including NYT and Washington Post and the polls sponsored by them have been predicting Biden will win by a comfortable margin.  How can one believe them?  They predicted in 2016 that Hillary Clinton would win.But Trump defeated Clinton by 306 electoral votes, though Clinton won the popular vote by 2%.

    Therefore, the decision will be made by the voters in battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.    In 2016, Trump’s major victory against Clinton was in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan.    He won with a narrow margin of 77,000 votes combined from these four states.    According to my calculations Trump has good chances to win New Hampshire, Nevada, and Minnesota this year.

    The upstart Trafalgar does not see 2020 the same way everyone else does.  Trafalgar’s strategist Robert Cahaly was born in Georgia and got involved in politics going door-to-door as a kid.  He started a political consulting firm with some others in the late 1990s.  Around 2008, he says, they realized that the polling they were getting was not very good, so they started doing their own.  He says they got good, accurate results in the races they were working.

    In the 2016 primaries, they started putting out some of their own polls.  “Our polls ended up being the best ones in South Carolina and Georgia, “ Cahaly says.  “So we started studying what it was that made those so different.”

    Then there was the breakthrough in the 2016 general election.  “We ended up having an incredible year,” he says.  “I mean, we got Pennsylvania right.  We got Michigan right.  We had the best poll in five of the battleground states in 2016.  And I actually predicted 306 to 232 on the electoral college.  And we went from doing a little bit of polling on the side to that (being) our primary business in about 24 hours.  And since then, that is what we have been doing.”

    As a general matter, he discounts national polls.  First, because the race for the presidency is won state by state, not on the basis of the national vote.  Second, because all the methodological difficulties involved in getting a balanced, representative sample in a state poll of 1,000 people are magnified in a national survey.  It is easily skewable at that point, and you start making assumptions.

    So how does he see the 2020 race? Fundamentally, as a motivation race, rather than a persuasion race, with perhaps 1.5 per cent, at most, of the electorate UNDECIDED in battleground states.

    The likeliest Trump electoral path to victory involves winning the battlegrounds of North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, and either Michigan or Pennsylvania among the former Blue Wall states (assuming he does not lose states such as Iowa or Ohio).

    THIS IS CAHALY’S BREAKDOWN:  He believes Trump will win North Carolina and Florida and discount’s Biden’s chances in Georgia because the Republican-base vote is too big there (the same is true in Texas).

    As for Arizona, “I think Trump has the lead,” Cahaly says.  “I think Republican Senator Martha McSally has some ground to make up.  I see her about 5 points behind Trump, but I think Trump will probably win the state.  And win it by a couple of points or more.  And if he wins it big enough, McSally has a shot.”

    Trump is not there yet in Pennsylvania, according to Cahaly. “Right now, we have got him down in Pennsylvania,” he says, “I think if it were held today, the Undecides would break toward Trump and there would be some hidden vote.

    In Michigan, Trafalgar has Trump ahead.  “I think he will win Michigan, “ Cahaly says, citing fear of the Democratic economic agenda.

    Overall, Cahaly sees another Trump win.  “If it all happened right now,” he maintains, “my best guess would be an Electoral College victory in the high to 270s, low 280s.”

    THERE IT IS.  AMONG POLLSTERS, YOU HEARD IT FROM ROBERT CAHALY FIRST, AND PERHAPS EXCLUSIVELY—A POSITION HE HAS BEEN IN BEFORE.

    I must point out that the second Presidential debate scheduled for 22nd October can have an impact.

    Do not forget Trump has been most unpredictable.  President Obama said Trump won’t run, won’t be nominated and cannot win against Hillary Clinton.   Nobody expected Trump would defeat nine veteran governors and 5 senators in the Primaries.  Trump proved everyone wrong by defeating the most popular Hillary Clinton.  There are more women voters than men voters.

    Trump is generating more enthusiasm than Biden.  The working class of America cannot forget Trump brought the unemployment to 3.4%, a 50-year record.   Four organizations have nominated Trump for Nobel Peace Prize based on foreign policy achievements, especially peace in the Middle East.

    THE GALLUP POLL ASKED THE AMERICANS: Are you better off today than four years ago?  56% said they are better off.  This is the most favorable poll for Trump.The question was coined by President Ronald Reagan during the Presidential debate.

    (Ven Parameswaran, Chairman, Asian American Republican Committee (founded 1988), lives in Scarsdale, NY. He can be reached at vpwaren@gmail.com)

     

     

     

  • Finally, a substantive and informative debate

    Finally, a substantive and informative debate

    By Gary Abernathy

    NBC’s Kristen Welker maintains order for final presidential debate

    As always, the “winner” of Thursday’s debate will be largely a matter of partisan opinion. The undisputed winner was journalism. After too many missteps in the Trump era when the media has fallen short of past standards, Welker did a good job of returning some respect to the profession.

     The debate Thursday night between President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden was so substantive and informative it sometimes bordered on boring, reflecting a level of gravitas we need more of in politics today.

    Trump, of course, can be counted on to bring at least a minimum level of bombast. He has a knack for enlivening things even when it seems safe to nod off. He was determined to inject into this nationwide broadcast claims about the business dealings of Hunter Biden, including allegations that the elder Biden was aware of — and involved in — his son’s business dealings (something Joe Biden has denied).

    Whether Trump laid a glove on Biden isn’t yet clear, but it was to moderator Kristen Welker’s credit that, even if she didn’t invoke Hunter Biden herself, she also didn’t try to stop Trump from doing so. Biden responded mostly by trying to change the subject to Trump’s foreign dealings. Eventually, Biden will need to answer in more detail questions about his son’s foreign business arrangements, and his attempt to blame Russia for these allegations is all but certain to seem obviously nonsensical.

    Over an hour and a half, the debate also covered the pandemic, health care in general, foreign business dealings, the economy, immigration, race relations, climate change, energy and leadership. Viewers were able to hear the stark and substantial differences between the candidates.

    On the more than 500 children separated from their parents at the border, Biden did a good job making the emotional case for the tragedy of such circumstances. But Trump was effective in explaining efforts being made to reunite children and parents and the care that children are receiving in the meantime. And when Trump charged that the Obama administration initially supplied the notorious “cages” that housed children, Biden never answered Trump’s repeated question: “Who built the cages, Joe?”

    On how governors have handled covid-19, Biden scored with his comment that he doesn’t look at states “in the way [Trump] does, blue states, red states,” saying that to him, “they’re all the United States.” Trump’s upbeat outlook on covid-19 may strike some as too rosy, but it stood in contrast to Biden’s “dark winter” and suggestion that Americans are learning not to live with the virus but “to die with it.” Voters tend to prefer optimism to defeatism. And Biden’s late-in-the-game admission, under pressure from Trump, that he would transition the country away from the oil industry might haunt him.

    Trump was good Thursday evening, and probably not just because of the debate sponsors’ decision to mute microphones if necessary to allow for uninterrupted answers. The president took a different approach to this debate than he did to the first one, which was a disaster for him. Trump’s performance Thursday encapsulated what makes him frustrating for those who want him to succeed. This is the version of Trump many of his supporters want to see more often — smart, informed and even presidential. Sadly, he doesn’t show up often enough.

    As moderator, NBC’s Welker offered a master class in handling the two candidates. It stood in sharp contrast to last week’s examples of what not to do at the competing town halls that replaced the canceled second debate.

    Last week, Trump was aggressively — some might say rudely — grilled by NBC’s Savannah Guthrie, who turned what was intended to be an audience-driven event into a one-on-one debate. Bizarrely, Guthrie spent an inordinate amount of time pressing Trump on QAnon, a fringe conspiracy movement most Americans aren’t focused on as an election issue. In the event’s opening minutes, she also demanded that Trump denounce white-supremacy groups, a favorite media topic no matter how many times Trump repudiates them.

    On ABC, meanwhile, Biden was treated like an old friend dropping by for drinks. Moderator George Stephanopoulos never broached reporting in the New York Post and other outlets on emails purportedly obtained from a laptop belonging to Hunter Biden. Stephanopoulos only mildly pressed Biden on whether he would pack the Supreme Court, settling for a “noncommittal committal” that Biden would answer the question before Election Day — depending on how the Amy Coney Barrett nomination turned out.

    These set the stage for how Welker would moderate Thursday’s face-off. She was respectful and tough in equal measure for both candidates, allowing them to make their points but always returning to the topics she wanted addressed. Focusing on the agenda, she put both candidates on the spot. For instance, she hit Trump hard on the allegations of racism frequently leveled against him, but she also pressed Biden on negative consequences of the 1994 crime bill he oversaw as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. And so it went throughout the night, fair and balanced.

    As always, the “winner” of Thursday’s debate will be largely a matter of partisan opinion. The undisputed winner was journalism. After too many missteps in the Trump era when the media has fallen short of past standards, Welker did a good job of returning some respect to the profession.

    (Gary Abernathy is contributing Columnist with Washington Post)

    (Source: Washington Post)

     

     

  • Indian-Americans can swing results in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Texas and North Carolina

    Indian-Americans can swing results in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Texas and North Carolina

    Nearly 2 million Indian-Americans can make difference in tightly contested states

    NEW DELHI /NEW YORK (TIP): Joe Biden, Democratic Party’s nominee for the US presidential elections, did not touch on India during the two debates with contender and President Donald Trump.

    But in an op-ed written for the influential India West media group, Biden wrote on why he is confident of the Indian-American vote going towards him.

    With Trump’s “Indian air is filthy’’ comment still reverberating, Biden contrasted his “long-lasting’’ ties with the Indian-American community as opposed to the US President’s transactional nature.

    “And as we value the Indian-American diaspora, we’ll continue to value the US-India relationship. For Donald Trump, it’s photo-ops. For me, it’s getting things done,” he said in a reference to Trump’s two stadium addresses with PM Modi.

    The Indian-American electorate of nearly 2 million  can make the difference in tightly contested states such as North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Texas.

    “This lasting relationship continues on this campaign, including at the top with Kamala Harris as the Vice-Presidential nominee,’’ wrote Biden while pointing out that one of the last events he hosted at the Vice President’s residence was a Diwali reception.

    “But the truth is, President Trump doesn’t share our values. As a result, today’s America doesn’t feel like the America of our dreams.’’

    Biden’s observations on affordable health care and home, free education and restoring H-1B visas would be words of comfort for the largely middle class Indian-Americans seeking stability. In contrast, Trump has asked the Supreme Court to wipe out the Affordable Care Act in its entirety, clamped down on legal immigration and is opposed to free education, wrote the former US Vice President.

    “It’s likely you and your family have been caught in the middle of Trump’s crackdown of legal immigration and his decisions on the H-1B visa program. And his dangerous rhetoric about immigrants has even fueled hate crimes against Indian Americans,’’ wrote Biden.

    On education, he promised free college tuition for families making less than $ 125,000 a year and help Indian American families through a first-time home buyer’s credit worth up to $15,000.

    Biden also sought to address India’s concerns regarding terrorism and China by promising to work  with New Delhi to promote regional peace and stability where “neither China nor any other country threatens its neighbors.’’

    “We’ll open markets and grow the middle class in both the US and India,’’ he also assured.

    (Source: The Tribune, India)

     

     

     

  • The final debate, a Pandora’s Box of Accusations and Lies

    The final debate, a Pandora’s Box of Accusations and Lies

    “I am the least racist person in this room”, Trump claimed.

    NEW YORK (TIP): The October 22 debate between President Donald  Trump and Vice President Joe Biden may be characterized as a friendly verbal duel between the two. President Trump, heeding the counsel  of his advisors did manage to overcome his impulse to attack left and right, and  appear aggressive. He was assertive though,  with all his  unfounded  accusations and claims, but the saving grace was an absence of Trumpian aggression. He did try to provoke Biden by repeatedly referring to the latter’s and his son Hunter Biden’s shady financial deals with countries like Ukraine, Russia and China.

    Debate Moderator NBC White House Correspondent Kristen Welker chose 6 topics for the debate which included Coronavirus, American Families, Race in America, Climate Change , National Security, and Leadership.

    U.S. President Donald Trump defended his approach to the coronavirus outbreak and claimed the worst of the pandemic was in the past.

    Democrat Joe Biden renewed his attacks on U.S. President Donald Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic while Trump leveled unfounded corruption accusations at Biden and his family.

    Trump  appeared to be straight lying with regard to his claim that the Coronavirus vaccine will be ready in weeks. When Moderator Kristen Welker asked him if he was guaranteeing that the vaccine will be ready “in weeks”, he said “NO”, and tried to explain away that many companies were almost there. And, on demand from Welker, he named a few companies , adding there were many others engaged in developing the vaccine.

    But even when the subject was the pandemic, Trump was foreshadowing what was to come, which was his onslaught of hazy accusations about Biden’s son Hunter and his foreign financial entanglements which have sprouted into Biden family entanglements, which Trump couldn’t really explain and didn’t really have his facts straight on and which are wholly unproven if not outright disproved. But still, Trump carried on with this story line through the foreign policy conversation — with a slight detour to fracking — and on through health care where he looks forward to the complete dismantling of the Affordable Care Act but still has yet to pull the big, beautiful Republican health care plan out of his hat.

    Biden spent much of this time declaring himself innocent of any foreign wrongdoing and reminding Trump that he was, in fact, not running against Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) or any of the Democratic governors who have gotten under Trump’s skin. “He thinks he’s running against someone else. He’s running against Joe Biden,” said Joe Biden.

    One of the final topics of discussion was race and it was, as always, the most nerve-racking. What white supremacist group will the president refuse to disavow? What racist retweet will he refuse to acknowledge? What horrible thing will the president say and then declare himself misunderstood? Welker asked each candidate to speak directly to Black Americans who feel compelled to give their children “the talk” in which they snatch away their innocence and explain how they must interact with police officers with a combination of fear and self-preservation. Do you empathize with those families?,  Welker asked.

    Biden spoke first and looked into the camera as he both outlined his understanding of “the talk” and what it means to have to deliver it. Trump couldn’t keep his gaze directed at the viewers. His eyes darted from the moderator to Biden and back again. As the conversation moved on to the Black Lives Matter movement and systemic racism, the president bragged about his funding of historically Black colleges and universities and his support of criminal justice reform. “I am the least racist person in this room,” he declared. But what does he say to those who believe he throws fuel on the fires of racial animosity and hatred? “I don’t know what to say.” And perhaps that was his most honest moment of the night.

    In closing, Welker asked each man to imagine his Inauguration Day speech. What might he say to those Americans who didn’t vote for him? How would he bind up the country? Trump spoke of money. “Success is going to bring us together,” he said. Trump believes that all things are transactional and when enough money is offered, anything, anyone can be bought. Black Americans can buy themselves out of racism. Women can buy themselves gender parity. The country can buy back its disintegrating reputation as humane and just.

    Biden’s inaugural speech would not ignore the economy. But it would also recognize that some things simply do not have a price. “I’m going to make sure you’re represented,” he said. “I’m going to choose hope over fear.”

    It should be said to the credit of Kristen Welker that she was in total control of the debate, unlike Chris Wallace who was moderator for the first debate on September 29 , when he had often to raise his voice many a time to bring about order.

    (With inputs from agencies)

     

  • Trump’s ‘filthy’ comment on India dismays strategists

    Trump’s ‘filthy’ comment on India dismays strategists

    ‘Look at India, it’s filthy,’ the US President said in the Oct 22 presidential debate

    NEW DELHI / NEW YORK (TIP): After not figuring in the first presidential debate between US President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, India did crop up in the second edition but not in the manner proponents of a much closer Indo-US strategic relations would have wished for.

    “Look at China. How filthy it is. Look at Russia. Look at India, it’s filthy. The air is filthy,’’ said Trump in a remark that cut several strategic analysts to the bone. On the other hand, the US has the “lowest number in carbon emissions”, he claimed.

    Several questioned on social media the need for Trump to make an unsavory reference to India when they were expecting Indo-US ties to turn the strategic corner during the forthcoming visit of two top American cabinet ministers to India. They also wondered if Trump had this view of India why did he pay a return stadium-visit to Ahmedabad barely six months after being hosted in a Houston stadium by PM Narendra Modi.

    Biden did not mention India.

    Trump was responding to debate moderator Kristen Welker’s question on how he would simultaneously combat climate change and support job growth.

    The debate was expected to feature India and the wider neighborhood. During the first debate, the two candidates did not speak much on the American foreign policy, especially in the Asia Pacific, which seems to be the focus of the current administration.

    One reason for the cursory references to foreign policy is also because one debate was cancelled after Trump refused to participate in an on-line format.

    Welker had chosen six topics for in-depth discussions. Three of them were domestic issues while the other three – climate change, leadership and national security – had foreign policy ramifications.

    Trump, however, was consistent in his observations in blaming the three countries. In the first debate on September 29, he had said, “China sends up real dirt into the air. Russia does, India does — they all do.’’

    (Source: The Tribune)

  • Indian American Couple’s Campaign for Joe Biden

    Indian American Couple’s Campaign for Joe Biden

    Paraminder Aujla

    SACRAMENTO(TIP): A Silicon Valley-based Indian-American couple has released a digital graphic campaign in Hindi, urging their community members to support and vote for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his running mate Kamala Harris.

    The campaign titled “Trump Hatao America Bachao” and “Biden Harris ko jitao , America ko aage badao“, was launched in 14 Indian languages on Monday, October 12said Biden supporters, Ajay and Vinita Bhutoria.

    The focus of the campaign on the battle ground States where every vote matters and Indian-Americans can play an important role in the election results, Bhutoria said in a statement.

    Battle ground States of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, along with three southern states Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, as well as Arizona collectively have 127 electoral votes.

    “The Indian American Votes will be the margin of victory and make the winning difference in battleground states,” he said.

    In 2016 Trump had a narrow win in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.

    Democratic supporters this year are doing extensive outreach to the Indo Americans /South Asians in 14 languages through thousands of phone banking calls each week.

    “We are determined to turn out the 1.3 million Indo American votes for Biden,” he said.

    Earlier Ajay had released two Bollywood videos to “unite all South Asians and people of Indian origin to support Biden and Harris.

    ”Chale Chalo Biden ko vote do” (Let’s go, vote for Biden) the music video is now running on TV Asia as advertisement and Ajay also led by bringing Digital Graphics of “America Ka Neta Kaisa Ho Jo Biden Jaisa ho” and “Jaago America Jaago, Biden Harris ko Vote do” earlier in 14 languages.