The Indian Panorama

Tag: GDP

  • There’s more to growth than GDP

    There’s more to growth than GDP

    India cannot afford to continue with the urban-industrialization model that has created global crises

    “The key reform the Indian economy requires is a reform of the design and governance of a business enterprise. Workers, whether on farms or in factories, must be the owners of the enterprises in which they work so that they earn the profits made from their work and increase their own wealth, rather than passing on the profits to increase the wealth of financial investors. The capital assets required in the production process — machines in the manufacturing enterprise and the land for farms — must belong to the workers in the enterprise. Workers should be their own employers and not be compelled to become employees in factories and farms owned by stock market investors and feudal landlords.”

    Faster GDP growth will not improve the well-being of India’s billion-plus citizens. For the past 25 years, the Indian economy has created less employment with each unit of GDP growth than other large countries. We have the largest population of youth in the world, seeking employment with good wages.

    By Arun Maira

    India’s policymakers are in a dilemma. Too many people, they say, are working in the agriculture sector. Therefore, according to them, the productivity of India’s farm sector, measured by the number of people employed in it, is also too low. They would rather have more people being moved out of rural areas and farms — and small, ‘informal’, manufacturing and service enterprises — into cities, and into large, ‘formal’ factories and service enterprises.

    The problem is that large formal enterprises are not creating enough secure jobs with decent wages. They are unwilling to absorb more people, pay them higher wages and provide them with social security. Instead, they want more ‘flexible’ labor laws to keep wage costs down. The core problem of the Indian economy is that employers in all sectors (manufacturing, services and agriculture) are using more machinery, and more technology — instead of human beings — to increase their output and productivity.

    The key reform the Indian economy requires is a reform of the design and governance of a business enterprise. Workers, whether on farms or in factories, must be the owners of the enterprises in which they work so that they earn the profits made from their work and increase their own wealth, rather than passing on the profits to increase the wealth of financial investors. The capital assets required in the production process — machines in the manufacturing enterprise and the land for farms — must belong to the workers in the enterprise. Workers should be their own employers and not be compelled to become employees in factories and farms owned by stock market investors and feudal landlords. They should have the choice of how they will use profits from their work: whether to invest further in their enterprise or invest in their family welfare and their children’s education.

    Reforms of land ownership that transferred land from landlords to the erstwhile workers on farms caused small farmers’ incomes to grow much faster in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China than in India in the last 50 years, explains Mike Bird in The Land Trap: A New History of the World’s Oldest Asset. Bird explains why reforms progressed faster in other countries than in India. Vested interests came in the way of reforms in all countries. However, the leaders in those nations supported the rights of farmer-workers not the capitalist-owners. With reforms, small farmers’ incomes and wealth increased, and they invested more in the education of their children. It is noteworthy that farm output and agricultural productivity also increased without forcing people off farms.

    Economists and business people must rethink the value of ‘scale’ in enterprises. Large-scale production of a standardized commodity — whether widgets in a factory or a monocrop on a large farm — increases economic efficiency by enabling the use of large machines and employment of low-skill workers to perform repetitive tasks. Large-scale enterprises can afford to deploy capital in machines and artificial intelligence. Thereby, they need less human labor and intelligence. While their efficiency and output may go up, and productivity too (measured as output per human being employed), such enterprises employ fewer humans. They contribute to the ‘jobless’ GDP growth of the economy.

    Small farms that grow a variety of food organically have a greater ‘scope’ of production on the farm. Waste becomes a useful input on the farm itself, especially on farms that also have animals. Farms with more scope are naturally more sustainable. Materials and energy circulate within and around such small farms which have less scale but more scope.

    Environmental scientist Vaclav Smil has computed the total system requirements of hydrocarbon energy and other non-renewable inputs in modern industries, food production and distribution systems, and in global transportation systems. In his book, How the World Really Works, he explains that the modern and technologically intensive large-scale food production and distribution system is the largest polluter of the soil, water and the atmosphere. He also explains that small-scale farms with more scope are the best scientific solutions for environmental sustainability.

    The problem, he points out, is that this solution requires more people to live and work in rural areas, and engage in smaller agriculture, manufacturing and service enterprises. This will require a reversal of migration from urban/formal enterprises to rural/informal ones. Citizens in advanced countries will not accept this. India should not have as much of a problem as other nations, because it already has the largest number of people living and working in rural areas — the very problem our economists are struggling to solve!

    Faster GDP growth will not improve the well-being of India’s billion-plus citizens. For the past 25 years, the Indian economy has created less employment with each unit of GDP growth than other large countries. We have the largest population of youth in the world, seeking employment with good wages.

    With the present pattern of growth, India’s GDP must grow at 12 per cent per annum for the next few years to generate enough employment. Each unit of GDP growth is also causing more pollution and environmental degradation than in other countries. Therefore, India cannot afford to continue following the urban-industrialization model of growth that has created global environment and inequality crises.

    The pattern of growth must change for our nation to become a livable and sustainable ‘Viksit Bharat’. Rather than the goal of climbing higher than other countries on the GDP ladder, India’s economic reformers should reform the process of economic growth itself.

    We must find our own way; a more inclusive and environmentally sustainable way; a more ‘family’ and ‘community’ way — a more ‘Gandhian way’ — to build our nation and strengthen our economy for it to deliver poorna swaraj (complete political, social and economic freedom) for all citizens. This was the ‘tryst with destiny’ towards which we had set out on August 15, 1947, when India became a sovereign nation responsible for its own future.

    (Arun Maira is a management consultant and former member of Planning Commission of India. He is also a former chairman of Boston Consulting Group, India)

  • India Continues to Demonstrate Strong Economic Momentum with 8.2% GDP Growth in Q2 FY 2025–26

    India Continues to Demonstrate Strong Economic Momentum with 8.2% GDP Growth in Q2 FY 2025–26

    BUCHAREST (TIP): The Embassy of India in Romania hosted a focused briefing on India’s accelerating economic performance, highlighting the country’s continued position as one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies on Tuesday, 3rd December 2025. The session was attended by the economic experts, academics, business leaders and the members of the Indian community. It provided an insightful overview of India’s macroeconomic outlook and structural drivers of growth.

    Addressing the gathering, Ambassador Dr. Manoj Kumar Mohapatra noted that India has recorded an impressive GDP growth rate of 8.2% in the second quarter of FY 2025–26, reflecting robust domestic demand, improved investor confidence, and sustained economic reforms. He emphasized that this performance stands as a testament to the resilience and dynamism of the Indian economy amid global uncertainties. He highlighted that the growth surge is supported by strong fundamentals across key sectors. The manufacturing sector has expanded significantly, propelled by the “Make in India” initiative, rising production capacity, and increased global value chain integration. The services sector, particularly IT, digital services, and financial technologies, continues to drive innovation and export growth.

    Ambassador also underlined India’s remarkable progress in digital infrastructure, with the world-leading Unified Payments Interface (UPI), rapid adoption of digital public goods, and expansion of high-speed broadband networks across urban and rural areas. These developments are boosting entrepreneurship, improving service delivery, and enabling financial inclusion at scale.

    Further, Ambassador noted that sustained government initiatives such as the National Infrastructure Pipeline, Gati Shakti, and policies encouraging foreign direct investment have strengthened India’s position as a reliable global partner in trade and investment. Rising FDI inflows, improved logistics efficiency, and simplified regulatory frameworks continue to elevate India’s competitiveness. Participants at the event expressed keen interest in India’s long-term economic prospects and discussed potential areas for deeper cooperation in trade, technology, and innovation.

    Since India’s economy is experiencing robust growth, positioning it as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, it is expected to fuel rising domestic demand for imports, particularly Romania’s key exports like machinery ($105M in 2024), electrical equipment ($63M), and optical instruments ($26M), which reached $292M total to India last year amid expanding bilateral trade nearing $3B. Consequently, Romanian firms stand to gain greater market access and higher sales volumes in India, while the surge in investment opportunities, bolstered by recent ministerial level talks on supply chains and an India-EU FTA, draws Romanian capital into priority sectors, fostering mutual economic resilience.

    The Embassy reiterated India’s commitment to fostering stronger economic engagement and invited stakeholders to explore the many emerging opportunities in the Indian market.

    (Based on a Press Release issued by Embassy of India in Bucharest)

  • GDP growth should be a corollary of job creation

    GDP growth should be a corollary of job creation

    It is time for a paradigm shift. The focus needs to shift from GDP growth to the creation of more productive and better-paying jobs.

    “A national mission for achieving 100 per cent modern solid waste management, sewage treatment and processing and utilization of bio-waste as a source of renewable energy should get the resource allocation needed for giving us a clean environment and, at the same time, creating large-scale dispersed employment.

    The key is to design state interventions and allocate financial resources, giving job creation overriding priority. It should be profitable for private firms to create more jobs, and the state can and should make it happen.”

    By Ajay Shankar

    The India Employment Report 2024, released recently by the Institute for Human Development in partnership with the International Labour Organisation, provides a comprehensive analysis of the latest official data. Some of its key findings are: the slow transition to non-farm employment has reversed; nearly 82 per cent of the workforce is engaged in the informal sector and around 90 per cent is informally employed; the youth unemployment rate has increased in accordance with the level of education, with the highest rate among those with a graduate degree or higher; and the real wages of regular workers have either remained stagnant or declined.

    This is the situation even when GDP growth rates have been rising after the post-Covid recovery. If growth rates rise further, the acute problem regarding employment will continue. This calls for a policy response. But when looking for one, there is a mindset barrier that needs to be overcome first. One way of understanding this is to compare our performance with that of China. In 1991, the per capita incomes of the two nations were almost the same, and technologically, we were on a par, notwithstanding China being a powerful centralized state. Today, the Dragon has a per capita income that is five times ours. It has become the factory of the world and is trying to catch up with the US in frontier technologies. The primary reason for this widening gap has been our embrace of the Washington Consensus, with its faith in the efficacy of free markets, globalization and the diminished role of the state. The state should restrict itself to providing macroeconomic stability, ease of doing business and the provision of physical infrastructure, along with education and healthcare. The state should not pursue an old-fashioned industrial policy as it is incapable of ‘choosing winners and losers’.

    The Chinese, on the other hand, made symbolic gestures to please the West but followed the smart industrial policies that South Korea and Japan had pursued to catch up with advanced industrial economies. The state steered the economy with pragmatic policies. The problem with our mindset was reflected in the comments of Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran at the release of the report; he listed all good macro-level policies that were already there. It was now for the industry to create jobs. There was, by implication, nothing more that the government could do.

    Given the severity of the employment challenge, it is time for a paradigm shift. The focus needs to shift from GDP growth to the creation of more productive and better-paying jobs. GDP growth should be a corollary of job creation. The starting point for change is to realize that smart sectoral policies can steer market forces to create more jobs. The purpose of choosing sectors and policy instruments has to be higher job creation.

    There are two macro-level decisions that are prerequisites for offering better incentives to firms to create jobs. The first is for the Reserve Bank of India to give up the article of faith of letting market forces determine the exchange rate rather than acting to prevent real exchange rate appreciation. Real exchange rate appreciation makes imports cheaper and exports more expensive and has an adverse impact on employment. India is getting disproportionately large capital inflows through remittances and speculative foreign investments in our stock markets, resulting in real exchange rate appreciation. East Asian nations kept their currencies artificially depreciated to industrialize faster.

    More than improving the ease of doing business, firms look at the cost of doing business. The PLI (production-linked incentive) is a recognition of the fact that there is a cost disadvantage in manufacturing in India, and a cash grant is made to offset this disadvantage linked to the achievement of agreed levels of output. It would be much better to lower costs across the board. But this would involve difficult decisions. These would include bringing petrol and diesel into the GST ambit, that in the 18 per cent slab, doing away with toll highways, ending cross-subsidy in rail freight charges and making the movement of goods by rail lucrative. The high cost of logistics in India is a major source of competitive disadvantage. Further, creating affordable rental accommodation for workers near manufacturing areas would improve their productivity.

    A few labor-intensive sectors with the highest potential for creating jobs need to be chosen initially for putting together a critical mass of interventions to achieve a breakthrough. Tourism creates many jobs, but it awaits state-driven investment to establish destinations that attract international tourists and wealthy Indians in large numbers. In manufacturing, selectively raising the import duty and combining this with a package of financial incentives to achieve scale and competitiveness is one option that has produced good results in the case of toys. Having an FTA (free trade agreement) with the European Union should be a priority, as it would provide duty-free access to the European market for our labor-intensive garment exports. Creating, for instance, a labor-intensive ship-building industry is feasible. In the industrial era, competitive advantage is not a natural endowment; it is created. The state, in consultation with the domestic industry and global firms, can work out incentives that would lead to large-scale investment and job creation. Apple is a good example of the success of this approach in the manufacturing and export of smartphones.

    A national mission for achieving 100 per cent modern solid waste management, sewage treatment and processing and utilization of bio-waste as a source of renewable energy should get the resource allocation needed for giving us a clean environment and, at the same time, creating large-scale dispersed employment.

    The key is to design state interventions and allocate financial resources, giving job creation overriding priority. It should be profitable for private firms to create more jobs, and the state can and should make it happen.

    (The author is Distinguished Fellow, TERI)

  • Not by GDP Alone

    I am more inclined  to think as a common man rather than come out with a scholarly and pedantic analysis. I shall not go in to the nitty gritty of figures or make a presentation through graphs to exhibit gains and losses because these have only confounded the common man. I will not speak of when India will be a 5 trillion or 7 trillion economy.  I will  not make comment on  the growth of GDP. Nor  would I make any guesses about the fortunes of an Adani or an  Ambani.  I leave that to a Narendra Modi or a Nirmala Seetharaman. I shall be more interested in talking about where India stands when it comes to the people of India and their rights as human beings.

    For every Indian it was a bliss to be alive on 26th January 1950 when the Constitution of Secular India came in to being. For him it was a day when he was promised certain fundamental rights. Readers may please look into the Preamble to the Constitution of India. It is a day when every Indian felt he was going to see a new sunrise. It is a day that promised every single man, woman and child in India end of inequality and exploitation. It is a day that held the prospect of an end to bigotry. It is the day that spoke of an end of illiteracy. It is a day our leaders described as the day of a new awakening. It is a day of new life of liberty and freedom-the most cherished goals of every human being anywhere in the world. Indians bowed their heads in gratitude before the framers of the Constitution, led by the brilliant Dr. Bhim Rao Ambedkar. They felt they were just about to enter the Promised Land.

    Behind the veil of all external growth, all seeming progress, there is decadence in India. To the common people, equality is a word in Dr. Ambedkar’s Constitution of India, not the practice. How can one claim there is equality in India when the majority still is caught in the grinding machine of illiteracy, ignorance and poverty? How can one feel proud of the growing economic stature of the country (India will be a 5 Trillion economy by 2024 and an economic super power by 2050 or even earlier) when one does not get two square meals, is without a home and has neither a present nor a future?

    73 years of Republic and we  have still not been able to ensure justice to our people. “Might is Right” holds true in the land of the Buddha, Nanak and Gandhi. From far flung hamlets to the city, it is the might that rules. Even the politicians who are supposed to act as the custodians of the Constitution subscribe to the dictum. Dalits and minorities are at the receiving end. A case in point is the 1984 anti-Sikh riots in Delhi and elsewhere in India. Ten thousand Sikh men, women and children were butchered in cold blood then. Thousands of Sikh women became widows. Thousands of children became orphans.

    Look at all the cases being reported every day of  rape of dalit women, the police brutality, the gangsters’ reign, the highhandedness of government officials, the loot the politicians engage in day in and day out. Law seems to have taken leave of the country.

    A fresh case is of the top Indian wrestlers who have been forced to gather in Delhi to protest the sexual harassment of players by Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, the President of Wrestling Federation  of India and his colleagues. Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh should have been arrested and interrogated, if the law had respect in the country, but  he will not be touched, because he belongs to the ruling party, and, on top of it, he is a “Bahubali”. Those who speak of Ram Rajya are the ones who do not practice Ram Rajya.

    The Non-resident Indians have been voicing similar concern at the lawlessness in the country when many pointed out that their property in India was being grabbed by unscrupulous elements and many had been framed in false criminal cases. They pointed the accusing finger at the police and civil officials who connived with criminals to rob the NRI’s of their legitimate property. How can government of India expect the NRI’s to come forward to invest in the country when they feel insecure? Law is on leave, probably a long leave.

    Where is Equality promised in the Constitution of the Republic of India? Where is Freedom? Where is Justice?

    Let us on this Republic Day ask ourselves these questions, for the sake of the Republic of India.

    SATYAMEV JAYATE!

  • Indian economy estimated to grow at 7% in current fiscal: NSO

    Indian economy estimated to grow at 7% in current fiscal: NSO

    New Delhi (TIP)- The country’s GDP at constant prices will grow by over Rs 10 lakh crore more during the current fiscal (FY22-23) as compared to the previous fiscal (FY 2021-22). This translates into growth in real GDP during FY23 at 7% as compared to 8.7% in FY22, according to the First Advance Estimates of National Income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).

    Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 157.60 lakh crore, as against the provisional estimate of GDP for 2021-22 of Rs 147.36 lakh crore.

    Largely tallies with RBI’s 6.8% projection

    The projections are much lower than government’s earlier forecast of 8-8.5% growth but above the RBI’s projection of 6.8%. The first advance GDP estimates, which are used to work out allocations and other fiscal projections for the next Budget due on February 1, proved to be more optimistic than the actual growth in three out of the last four years. The projections suggest that despite the global headwinds and continued geopolitical uncertainty caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the recovery is on track though there are pressure points. The 7% GDP growth in 2022-23 largely tallies with the RBI’s forecast made in December of GDP growth of 6.8% and the World Bank’s estimation of 6.9%.

    Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 273.08 lakh crore, as against the provisional estimate of GDP for 2021-22 of Rs 236.65 lakh crore. The growth in nominal GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 15.4% as compared to 19.5% in 2021-22.

    Was 8.7% in 2021-2022

    At constant prices, the GDP will grow by over Rs 10L crore more during the current fiscal as compared to the previous fiscal, as per NSO estimates. Real GDP in 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 157.60 lakh crore, as against the provisional estimate of GDP for 2021-22 of Rs 147.36 lakh crore. Big decline in the output of the manufacturing sector to 1.6% projected as against the growth of 9.9% in 2021-22.

    Agri sector It is expected to grow at 3.5% compared to 3% in the previous fiscal.

    Mining It is likely to grow at 2.4% from last fiscal’s 11.5% report inside.

    The projections show a big decline in the output of the manufacturing sector to 1.6% as against growth of 9.9% in 2021-22. The agriculture sector is expected to grow at 3.5% compared to 3% in the previous fiscal. The mining sector is likely to grow at 2.4% from last fiscal’s 11.5%. Private final consumption expenditure, whose rise could boost demand, is forecast to rise by 7.7% in 2022-23 as compared to the previous fiscal. Gross fixed capital formation is estimated to rise around 11.5% in the current fiscal. The electricity sector is likely to grow at 9%, compared to 7.5% in the last fiscal. Trade and hotels growth is expected to be a healthy 13.7% from last fiscal’s 11.1%, showing the effects of Covid in this contact-intensive industry are wearing off. In finance and real estate, the growth is estimated at 6.4% as against 4.2% in the last fiscal.

                    Source: TNS

  • India – A Vibrant Democracy and A Pluralistic Society

    “India is bound together as a great nation by the strength and stability of its democracy, the rule of law and a breath-taking diversity of its populace in terms of religion, language, culture, climate, history, geography and more.”

    By Ambassador A. R. Ghanshyam

    Introduction: For much of the two thousand years of the Common Era, India was the largest economy contributing a third of the global output. Archaeological evidence traces the origins of ancient India’s Indus Valley Civilization to the 5th millennium before the Common Era. During medieval times too India witnessed several glorious empires and great civilizations spread across millions of miles under enlightened emperors. Towards the last quarter of the last millennium, India came under the influence of East India Company for almost a century during 18th and 19th centuries. Thereafter the Sepoy Mutiny in 1857 compelled the British to place India directly under the British Crown for another ninety years. For almost two centuries, therefore, India was anchored to Great Britain serving the interests of only the British Empire. Of all the colonies the British conquered, controlled and immensely benefited from it was India that was by far the biggest and the wealthiest and was often referred to as the Jewel in the (British) Crown.

    Before finally leaving India, the British divided the Indian subcontinent into two countries in three parcels – India, Pakistan West and Pakistan East. India’s population then was 330 million and the GDP was INR 2.7 trillion – a paltry 3% of the global GDP. A country which accounted for a third of the global output for much of two millennia before had thus been bled bone dry by the colonial masters.

    Independent India

    Independent India has witnessed seventeen free and fair Parliamentary Elections with fifteen Prime Ministers at the helm – each contributing his/her mite to the growth, stability and development of the Indian Nation, its society and economy. How individual Prime Ministers of India tried to build a modern India from the debris of two centuries’ rule by the British Empire is in itself a great story and has been narrated by many authors, Indian and foreign.

    In the seventy-five years since independence, India has negotiated a difficult, at times treacherous, journey replete with five wars (1948, 1962, 1965, 1971 and 1999) and facing frequent occurrence of natural calamities i.e., floods, famines, droughts and epidemics. Two of its elected Prime Ministers were brutally assassinated and a third died mysteriously after signing the Ceasefire Agreement in the Soviet city of Tashkent post the India-Pakistan 1965 War. A stretch of 21 months during 1975-77 remains an aberration in India’s otherwise uninterrupted democracy when fundamental rights of Indian citizens were suspended during the period of national emergency.

    Progress achieved

    Much water has flown in the Ganga since India attained her independence. During 1950-51 the contributions to Indian GDP by agriculture, industry and services sectors were 56%, 15% and 29% respectively. Agriculture employed the largest workforce of 72% with Manufacturing and Services providing 10% and 18% jobs respectively. Today the service sector accounts for 54% of Indian GDP. The industry and agriculture follow with 25.92% and 20.19% respectively. Life expectancy on the eve of independence was 32 years. It has now gone up to 70 years. In 1950, infant mortality rate in India was 145.6/1000 live births and maternal mortality ratio in the 1940s was 2000/100,000 live births which declined to 1000 in the 1950s. There were just 50,000 doctors across the entire country and the number of primary healthcare centres was 725. Today, infant mortality is 27.7 per 1000 births and maternal mortality rate is 103 per 100,000. India now has more than 1.2 million doctors. There are 54,618 Sub-Health Centres (SHC), 21,898 Primary Health Centres (PHC) and 4,155 Urban Primary Health Centres (UPHC), as on December 8, 2021. There are as many as 70,000 public and private hospitals. As of April 5, 2022, there were 117,771 Ayushman Bharat-Health and Wellness Centres (AB-HWCs) are operational in India apart from 748 e-Hospitals established across the country as part of the ‘Digital India’ initiative of the government.

    As for education, when the British left India there were 210,000 primary schools, 13,600 middle schools and 7,416 higher secondary schools in India apart from 498 colleges and 27 Universities. Today there are 1.6 million schools, 42,343 colleges and a thousand Universities. More than 250 million children are going to school today in India and close to 40 million are enrolled in our universities.

    India survived a devastating once in a century pandemic of Covid 19 and its economy contracted by 7.3% in the financial year 2020-21.  It may be some consolation that this contraction was lower than in other major economies. As per latest available estimates the growth rate of GDP for 2021-22 is pegged at 8.7% which has to be seen in the context of 7.3% contraction in the preceding year. India is bound together as a great nation by the strength and stability of its democracy, the rule of law and a breath-taking diversity of its populace in terms of religion, language, culture, climate, history, geography and more. At the time of India’s first census in 1951 Hindus were 305 million (84.1%), Muslims 35.4 million (9.8%), Christians 8.3 million and Sikhs 6.86 million (1.9%). In 2022 the estimated population is 1090 million Hindus (79.80%), 200 million Muslims (14.23%), 31.2 million Christians (2.3%), 23.7 million Sikhs (1.72%), 9.6 million Buddhists (0.70%), 5.1 million Jains (0.37%) and 9.1 million (0.66%) other religions and 3.3 million (0.24%) religion not stated. There are two million Hindu temples, 300,000 active mosques, 8,114 Jain temples a few of them abroad, more than 125 Buddhist temples, monasteries, stupas and pagodas, some 35 Jewish synagogues etc. At the time of independence many predicted that India will splinter into pieces based on caste, creed, tribe, language, culture etc., but she has remained in one piece and stronger than ever.

    Future Prospects

    In the last ten years, despite a sliding down of growth rates since 2016 till the economy picked up this year and a significant unemployment burden haunting policy maker in the country, there is a quiet revolution taking place in the arena of technology, digitization and innovation spearheaded by young Indian companies. The government’s Atmanirbharta crusade has given an impetus to it.

    Latest research of the Indian economy in the last ten years by analyst Ruchir Sharma has a few exciting revelations. In 2011 India had 55 Billionaires with a cumulative wealth of US $ 256 billion which was then equivalent to 13.5% of India’s GDP. Ten years later in 2021 India hosts 140 billionaires with the cumulative wealth US$ 596 billion equivalent to 19.6% of the GDP. Sharma adds that 110 of these are new Billionaires created during the course of just last decade. At the time of independence India was the sixth largest economy in the world. In 2021 it retains the same position which is no mean achievement with India’s population having more than quadrupled.

    Notwithstanding the above, there is no room for complacency because (a) India still have a large population that lives below the poverty line, estimated by the World Bank at 140 million which is 10% of the population, (b) the formal and informal sectors may not able to absorb the large number of educated young who are passing out of colleges (2022 estimate is 10.76 million), (c) external and internal factors will keep haunting the policy establishment in its effort to achieve double digit GDP growth rate which is the need of the hour for India. Be that as it may India also has several advantages – (i) a median age of less than 30 years, (ii) a strong and focussed government, (iii) growing market, and, (iv) an innovative Indian youth. If India persists with its pursuit of building and consolidating its infrastructure, keeps the society cohesive and harmonious, stabilizes predictable consistency in policy formulation and implementation, a brighter future can be ensured for its future generations.

    (Ambassador A. R.Ghanashyam is a retired Indian diplomat who has served as Ambassador of India to Angola and High Commissioner of India to Nigeria)