Behind the summit rhetoric lie difficult choices over security, trade and diplomacy
The weekend will show India using diplomacy to restore the Indian government’s domestic image, elevate its international diplomatic standing and engage Russia and Iran without offending the US. But, as the Bishkek Declaration noted, “global geopolitics are undergoing profound evolution, with profound changes in economic, social and technological development.” A few plurilateral summits may at best frame solutions, but implementation requires visionary leadership.
The 18th BRICS summit is scheduled for September 12-13 in New Delhi. Formally, it is another gathering of some global leaders of emerging economies. However, to put it in the correct perspective, the geopolitical context, including other recently held or upcoming summits, as well as the domestic politics and diplomatic priorities of the members, needs to be considered.
Ahead of the BRICS summit, the SCO Summit was held in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, from August 31 to September 1. Concurrently, the G-20 finance ministers met in the US. South Africa was neither invited for that nor is likely to be for the G20 summit scheduled for December 14-15. South Africa has the largest economy in Africa.
The SCO was created under Chinese leadership in 2001 as the focus shifted to terrorism emanating from Afghanistan, including the 9/11 attacks in the US. Hence, it originally focused on security and counterterrorism in the Central Asian region. However, as the Chinese economy rapidly grew and the US got entrenched, first in Afghanistan and then in Iraq post 2003, China’s ambitions for the SCO’s role expanded.
The BRIC acronym was coined by Goldman Sachs in 2001 to describe four emerging economies expected to play a greater role in the 21st century — Brazil, Russia, India and China. The first BRIC summit was held in 2009. South Africa joined it in 2010, with the acronym amended to BRICS. In January 2024, the membership was expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE. A year later Indonesia also joined, with Saudi Arabia and Argentina ignoring the invitations.
The countries that are members of both SCO and BRICS are: China, India, Russia and Iran. It is not a coincidence that while India joined these groups, having rising Chinese influence, India attended the first meeting of the QUAD, comprising Australia, India, Japan and the US, in 2007. I led the official delegation as Additional Secretary (international Organizations). India was then closely engaging the US to contain the Chinese role in the Indo-Pacific and placating China via the SCO and BRICS.
Because geopolitics is not a static entity, these priorities kept fluctuating. Once the Labor government succeeded the Liberal government in Australia, its interest in QUAD waned. Almost conversely, the pro-QUAD Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, lost power. QUAD was revived a decade later when Prime Minister Abe regained power. In US President Donald Trump’s second term, the US has lost interest in the group as he engaged China in a G-2 format, sidestepping, perhaps temporarily, planned containment. But this undermined a basic assumption guiding the Indian foreign policy in the 21st century that for the US, India was critical for handling China.
Geopolitics is also shaping the role of all these groupings. With Canada, the UK and France sanctioning Israeli settlers in the West Bank, the cracks in NATO will widen. These had already surfaced over the US targeting Canadian trade and threatening to annex it and Greenland. The Mecca defense agreement of Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan further complicates the geostrategic scenario in the Gulf and West Asia.
Also of immediate relevance are crucial upcoming elections in Brazil and Israel next month and the US midterms on November 4. The outcome in Israel and in the US can impact the Gulf crisis. In India, too, the youth-led protests, under the brand “Cockroaches”, have fueled anti-government sentiment. Whether it becomes a storm or is contained, the upcoming Assembly elections, most importantly of Uttar Pradesh, will reveal, with implications for India’s domestic and foreign policies.
The Indian government is already recalibrating its pro-US and Israel tilt, visible since the Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026. Now, India quietly signed the Bishkek Declaration after the SCO summit, attended by PM Narendra Modi, which expresses “condemnation” of military strikes on Iran. It also reiterates that peace and stability in West Asia are only possible “by comprehensively and justly” resolving the Palestinian issue. India had of late been dithering on condemnatory UN resolutions on these subjects.
Hence, the leaders attending the BRICS summit will operate at multiple levels. They would formally discuss the themes devised by India, which seek “Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability”. The first covers climate change and Trump’s supply-chain disruptions. Innovation relates to digital public infrastructure, an Indian specialty, and financial technology as well as artificial intelligence, which China and the US dominate.
Cooperation is a slogan which BRICS members balance against national interests and international commitments. For instance, on global institutional reform, while India and China agree on reforming the World Bank and IMF, China openly, and Russia more subtly, oppose India and Brazil’s ambitions of becoming permanent members of the UN Security Council. Finally, sustainability relates to accelerating green finance and action on climate change and energy transitions.
Behind the scenes, beyond the speeches, hugging and hand-clasping, bilateral and regional issues will play out. The presence of the presidents of Iran and the UAE ostensibly provides India an opportunity to facilitate a détente. But Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is at best a messenger, with real decision-making resting with an IRGC-dominated power structure. By his constant dithering, President Trump has emboldened Iran, now expanding its demands. Iran is clearly delaying a compromise till the US midterms, hoping it leads to a weakened President Trump.
Similarly, Chinese President Xi Jinping is visiting India after seven years. After the last visit, Chinese troops intruded across the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh. This time too, the corps commanders recently met to discuss new border issues involving Arunachal Pradesh. China has been emboldened by President Trump conceding a G-2 format, elevating their international standing. China’s $100-billion trade surplus with India, when global trade stands disrupted by Trump’s tariff onslaught, motivates a transactional detente without settling the border issue or accepting India’s economic rise. China seeks dominance in the Indo-Pacific and bipolarity with the US globally.
The weekend will show India using diplomacy to restore the Indian government’s domestic image, elevate its international diplomatic standing and engage Russia and Iran without offending the US. But, as the Bishkek Declaration noted, “global geopolitics are undergoing profound evolution, with profound changes in economic, social and technological development.” A few plurilateral summits may at best frame solutions, but implementation requires visionary leadership.
(KC Singh is former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs)
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