The Indian Panorama

Tag: Kim Jong Un

  • Nepal is facing a moment of reckoning

    Nepal is facing a moment of reckoning

    Endemic corruption, nepotism, inequality and misgovernance had angered the people of Nepal.

    “An unsettled Nepal will seriously jeopardize Indian interests. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has rightly underlined that stability, peace and prosperity of Nepal are of “utmost importance” to India. India must also indicate support for democracy, republicanism and the supremacy of popular will.”

    By Jayant Prasad

    The GenZ protest launched by Hami Nepal, an NGO, three days ago, against nepotism and corruption has swept from power the entirety of the Nepalese political élite. This was demonstrated by the torching of the offices of the Nepali Congress (NC), the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist-Leninist (UML) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre). Besides, the houses of several prominent politicians were burnt, vandalized or stoned.

    Nepal’s premiership has changed nine times since 2015. Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli of the UML served as PM four times since, for a total period of one-and-a-half months short of six years.

    Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) of the Maoist Centre served twice, as did Sher Bahadur Deuba of the NC. Sushil Koirala of the NC served once.

    Power has rotated among the three major parties because of the opportunistic alliances forged by them without any ideological affinity or programmatic consensus. They played musical chairs for sharing the spoils of office.

    Disaffection had been simmering in Nepal for several years, and the banning of 26 social media platforms — ostensibly to protect national security and combat online hate, false news, cybercrime and misinformation — triggered the protests.

    Endemic corruption, nepotism, inequality and misgovernance had angered the people of Nepal. The three main political parties have been irreparably damaged, at least in the short to medium term, unless new faces emerge.

    Government law enforcement viciously cracked down on the peaceful assemblage that was proceeding towards the Nepalese Parliament House in New Baneshwar, Kathmandu. By the end of the police firing, there were 19 persons killed and nearly 400 injured. A DSP-level officer, who had reportedly served in Oli’s personal security staff, allegedly gave the firing order.

    The previous violence on a similar scale was seen two decades ago, at the time of the Jana Andolan. Nineteen persons had then lost their lives over a period of 19 to 20 days. On September 8, the same number of people died in two hours.

    Never before have public protests in Nepal resulted in so many casualties in such a short period of time.

    Hami Nepal had confined the march to those less than 28 years old. The youth wanted to be visible and were hoping for a better Nepal. Among those shot were schoolchildren in uniform. The resulting revulsion led to lawlessness and mayhem the following day.

    Although Hami Nepal had discouraged the participation of the older citizenry and had specifically asked the youth wings of political parties to keep away from the march on Monday, as with all such apolitical, spontaneous movements, vested interests would have taken advantage of the inept handling by the Nepalese government and infiltrated the ranks of the protesters.

    The lesson from what has happened in Nepal is that absolute political power is ephemeral. Just last week, a confident and dapper Oli, sporting dark glasses, was visible in the second or third row at the victory parade in Beijing to commemorate the Second World War, walking on the red carpet behind China’s President Xi Jinping and the North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un (the only other South Asian leader at the parade was Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif).

    Thereafter, a UML convention, on Oli’s return from China, decided to amend its 70-year age limit for leadership positions, enabling leaders to serve for more than two terms. Oli’s position was apparently strengthened.

    Ironically, his career, punctuated by a 14-year jail sentence and writing of revolutionary poetry on cigarette packets while incarcerated, has come to a sudden end.

    An unsettled Nepal will seriously jeopardize Indian interests. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has rightly underlined that stability, peace and prosperity of Nepal are of “utmost importance” to India. India must also indicate support for democracy, republicanism and the supremacy of popular will.

    The destruction of public property wrought two days ago in 10-11 hours surpassed that in the 10-11 years of the Maoist civil war. The structures set ablaze included the Singha Durbar, the seat of the Nepalese government, the Sanghiya Sansad, the Federal Parliament, and Sheetal Niwas, the presidential palace.

    No Nepalese political leader of note is now in his own or official residence. Violence did not abate even after the revocation of the social media sites shutdown order and Oli’s resignation.

    The Nepal Army, under General Ashok Raj Sigdel, has taken charge of law and order.

    The killings by Nepal’s Armed Police Force three days ago are reminiscent of events in Dhaka last year. Although some similarities exist, the conditions in Nepal and Bangladesh differ.

    The snowballing nationwide protests beginning with students, the exit of the incumbent PM, the army playing a stabilizing role and the appointment of a transitional government seem to follow a familiar pattern.

    The young and articulate mayor of Kathmandu, Balen Shah, was widely expected to be chosen as the head of the interim government — his reputation as a hip-hop rapper, who obtained his MTech degree from Visvesvaraya Technological University, Belgaum, precedes him. However, Sushila Karki, the first woman Chief Justice of Nepal was on Monday evening named as the head of the interim government.

    In Bangladesh, the ageing head of the interim government, Muhammad Yunus, has mismanaged the transition. With considerable experience, Karki, 73, is expected to do much better.

    “Nothing can stop a revolution in Nepal,” Jawaharlal Nehru wrote to Jayaprakash Narayan in November 1950, adding, “except the folly of those supporting it.”

    It was a turbulent period in Nepal’s history when King Tribhuvan was in New Delhi and the Mukti Sena, the liberation army of the Nepali Congress, was waging an armed struggle against the Rana government. Meanwhile, Nehru was engaged in delicate negotiations to arrive at an amicable settlement.

    Nehru’s comment was made at a different time. After the recent bloodshed, the Nepalese are hopeful of cleaner politics and an improved Nepal.

    Rebuilding Nepal’s polity and economy will be arduous. With its multi-layered partnership, India should lend a helping hand.

    (Jayant Prasad is a Former Ambassador of India to Nepal (2011-13).

  • Russia’s Putin says North Korea, BRICS should join Ukraine ceasefire talks

    Russia’s Putin says North Korea, BRICS should join Ukraine ceasefire talks

    The Russian president suggests Ukraine be placed under ‘temporary administration’ of the United Nations as part of a peace deal

    MOSCOW (TIP): Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine could be placed under a “temporary administration” as part of a peace process that could include help from North Korea and other Moscow allies, according to Russian state media.

    Speaking to a group of servicemen in Russia’s northern port of Murmansk, Putin laid out several provisions for a peace process to end the three-year war launched by Moscow in February 2022, according to Russia’s state news agency, TASS.

    Among Putin’s many suggestions was a call for new elections in Ukraine and the “signing of key accords” once the country is under international administration, TASS said.

    “In principle, of course, a temporary administration could be introduced in Ukraine under the auspices of the UN, the United States, European countries and our partners,” Putin was quoted as saying.

    “This would be in order to hold democratic elections and bring to power a capable government enjoying the trust of the people and then to start talks with them about a peace treaty,” Putin said.

    “We are for resolving all these issues by peaceful means,” he said. “Yet, with removing the original causes that triggered the current situation,” he added.

    Putin also said other countries should be involved in the peace process beyond the US and Russia, including Moscow’s treaty ally Pyongyang.

    “This is not only the United States but also the People’s Republic of China, India, Brazil, South Africa, all BRICS countries,” Putin said.

    “And many others, for example, including the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,” he said, using North Korea’s official name.

    Pyongyang has sent more than 3,000 new troops to join Russian forces fighting in Ukraine, according to South Korea’s military, topping the 11,000 sent last year, among which casualties are reported to have been catastrophic from the fighting with Ukraine’s army.

    Putin also said he was ready to work with Europe, as well, although it was “acting inconsistently, constantly trying to fool us”.

    “But it’s OK, we have gotten used to it already. I hope we will make no mistakes based on excessive trust to our so-called partners,” he said, according to TASS.

    Praise was reserved for US President Donald Trump, who the Russian leader described as “sincerely wishing for the end of this conflict”.

    Putin’s comments follow separate negotiations in Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh this week between Russian, Ukrainian and US officials aimed at securing a temporary ceasefire.

    According to the US, Kyiv and Moscow agreed to halt military strikes on vessels in the Black Sea, but in the days since, they have both accused each other of not taking the peace talks seriously.

    Following the deal, Ukraine accused Russia of launching an overnight drone attack on the city of Mykolaiv, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described as a “clear signal to the whole world that Moscow is not going to pursue real peace”.

    Russia separately accused Ukraine of carrying out a drone attack on a gas storage facility and a power installation in Russian-held territory, in contravention of an agreement to not attack each other’s power facilities. Russian media said a second round of talks is due to resume in Riyadh in mid-April.

    (Source: Al Jazeera and news agencies)

  • As Ukraine war drags on, US arms firms make a killing

    As Ukraine war drags on, US arms firms make a killing

    The US sold military hardware, services and technical data to its clients worth $153.7 bn in 2022, up from $103.4 bn the year before.

    “With the deterioration of global security, particularly after the commencement of the Ukraine war, US arms sales have been on the rise. Last year, US defense companies reaped huge dividends selling their weapons and defense platforms to their clients in Asia, Europe and Africa. Latest data shows that 2022 saw an increase of $51.9 billion in the sale of weapons. Most of it is largely due to the Russia-Ukraine war, where the US is backing Ukraine.”

    By Maroof Raza

    Russian President Vladimir Putin made a candid admission at Sochi in June. He acknowledged that Moscow’s troops were experiencing a shortage of modern weapons and expressed hope that the country’s military industry would soon be able to meet their growing demand amid the Ukraine war. One of the critical reasons for the shortage is the global sanctions that have imposed curbs on the acquisition of sophisticated parts used in the production of a variety of weapons and their auxiliary systems. This has led to a shortfall of main battle tanks and ballistic missiles. Besides, using cruise missiles is a costly affair. Thus, the recent visit by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to Russia attracted much attention. Apart from North Korea, Russia is getting help from Belarus, China and Iran in maintaining its ammunition stocks.

    Manned and unmanned aircraft, missiles and electronic warfare equipment require modern, high-tech components such as microchips and ball bearings. Russia faces challenges in sourcing these components adequately from domestic suppliers and importing them — as it did before the present conflict — from North America and Europe due to the sanctions. Now, Russia is forced to replace imports of critical components with supplies from China or Malaysia, which do not match the quality standards of those from the West. Another significant reason for Moscow’s urgent need to go shopping for ammunition from sources other than the usual ones is the extensive and disproportionate use of artillery by the Russian military.

    Swarms of Shahed 136 drones have been supplied to Moscow from Iran, and these have wreaked havoc on Ukrainian cities. China has repeatedly denied sending military equipment to Russia since Moscow’s all-out invasion of its neighboring country, even though the two nations signed a ‘no-limits’ partnership in February 2022. The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, warned China earlier this year that there would be ‘consequences’ if Beijing were to provide materiel support to Russia for its conflict in Ukraine.

    Russia can also fall back on its ammunition stocks and older weapon systems from the Cold War era. Battlefield losses and Western sanctions have left the Russian military in a state of decline, but Moscow will still have enough firepower to extend the war in Ukraine, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). It gives stark numbers of Russian military losses — almost 10,000 units of key equipment, such as tanks, trucks, artillery pieces and aerial drones, according to one estimate.

    But it also says that Russia can utilize Cold War-era and older stocks on the frontlines to make up in numbers what it may have lost in terms of technology. “The quality of the Russian military in terms of advanced equipment will likely decline, at least over the near term,” the CSIS report says. “Moscow is under pressure to adapt, often turning to less-reliable and costlier suppliers and supply routes, lower-quality imports, or trying to reproduce Western components internally. This is likely hampering the rate and quality of Russian defense production,” the report says.

    It cautions that Ukraine and its Western supporters should not expect a swift resolution to the hostilities due to these supply issues. Russia still retains numerical advantages over Ukraine, the report adds, because it has large inventories in reserve. “Russia’s military capabilities still greatly outnumber those of Ukraine on most indicators of air, land and naval power,” the report says.

    “While an accurate count of Moscow’s current military stocks is not available publicly, it has been roughly estimated that, as of February 2023, the total number of aircraft at the Kremlin’s disposal has been 13-15 times more than Kyiv’s. Russia has nearly seven to eight times more tanks and four times more armored fighting vehicles, while its naval fleet is 12-16 times larger than Ukraine’s,” it says. These numerical advantages will enable Moscow to run a war of attrition over the next year, throwing numbers on the battlefield until Ukraine, even with fewer losses, runs out of hardware, the report observes.

    While Russia’s military-industrial complex is struggling, its US counterpart is reaping the benefits. This can be ascertained by a recent report published by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) titled, ‘US Security Assistance to Ukraine’. The United States has been a leading provider of security assistance to Ukraine, particularly since Russia launched its renewed and expanded invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. From 2014, when Russia first invaded Ukraine, to August 22, 2023, the US has committed more than $46 billion in security assistance “to help Ukraine preserve its territorial integrity, secure its borders and improve interoperability with NATO”, according to the State Department.

    With the deterioration of global security, particularly after the commencement of the Ukraine war, US arms sales have been on the rise. Last year, US defense companies reaped huge dividends selling their weapons and defense platforms to their clients in Asia, Europe and Africa. Latest data shows that 2022 saw an increase of $51.9 billion in the sale of weapons. Most of it is largely due to the Russia-Ukraine war, where the US is backing Ukraine.

    Several European countries have started arming themselves as they perceive a threat from Russia. American defense companies are on a high. They have received new orders for military equipment as these nations strengthen their defenses. As the data shows, the US sold military hardware, services and technical data to its clients worth $153.7 billion in 2022, up from $103.4 billion the year before. The State Department data claims that the increase in the sale of defense products is attributed to the crisis in Ukraine, where the US government has authorized massive supplies. The Ukraine war has also caused huge insecurity among European nations like Germany, Poland and Spain, which have started arming their defense forces, fearing the unintended consequences of this long-drawn-out war could very well spill over to their borders.
    (The author is a Strategic Affairs Analyst)

  • Kim Jong Un shows off daughter, missiles at N. Korean parade

    Kim Jong Un shows off daughter, missiles at N. Korean parade

    SEOUL (TIP): North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his young daughter took center stage at a huge military parade, fueling speculation that she’s being primed as a future leader of the isolated country as her father showed off his latest, largest nuclear missiles. February 8 night’s parade in the capital, Pyongyang, featured the newest hardware in Kim’s growing nuclear arsenal, including what experts said was possibly a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile he may test in coming months.

    That missile was part of around a dozen ICBMs Kim’s troops rolled out at the event, an unprecedented number that underscored how he continues to expand his military capabilities despite limited resources in face of deepening tensions with his neighbors and the United States.

    The parade was the fifth known public appearance by Kim’s daughter, Kim Ju Ae, his second-born child who is believed to be around 10 years old. On Tuesday, Kim Jong Un brought his daughter to visit troops as he lauded the “irresistible might” of his nuclear-armed military.

    State media have signaled a lofty role for Kim Ju Ae. She’s been called “respected” and “beloved,” and a photo released Tuesday showed her sitting in the seat of honor at a banquet, flanked by generals and her parents.

    North Korean photos released Wednesday showed Kim, wearing a black coat and fedora, attending the parade with his wife and daughter. Kim smiled and raised his hand from a balcony as thousands of troops lined up in a brightly illuminated Kim Il Sung Square, which is named after his grandfather, the nation’s founder.

    North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency said all of the soldiers and spectators at the square raised “stormy cheers of ‘hurrah!’” and chanted the name of their ruler, a “great brilliant commander” who is “beefing up the military muscle with his outstanding military strategic ideas.”

    The parade marked the 75th founding anniversary of North Korea’s army and came after weeks of preparations involving huge numbers of troops and civilians mobilized to glorify Kim’s rule and his relentless push to cement the North’s status as a nuclear power.

    Photos released by state media showed transport and launcher trucks carrying about 10 of the country’s Hwasong-17 ICBMs, which demonstrated a flight range that would allow them to reach deep into the U.S. mainland during a flight test last year. Those missiles were followed by another large missile encased in a canister and transported on a 9-axle vehicle.

    It wasn’t immediately clear whether the missile was a mockup or an actual rocket, but Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Seoul’s University of North Korean Studies, said the missile was likely a version of a solid-fuel ICBM the North has been trying to develop for years. He added that the unprecedented number of Hwasong-17s paraded in Wednesday’s event suggests progress in efforts to produce those weapons in larger numbers. (AP)

  • North Korean leader Kim observes missile test to enhance nuclear capabilities

    Seoul (TIP): North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has observed the test firing of a new type of tactical guided weapon aimed at boosting the country’s nuclear capabilities, the North’s KCNA state news agency reported on april 19. The report comes amid signs North Korea could soon resume nuclear testing according to South Korean and U.S. officials and after Kim broke a self-imposed moratorium on intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing with a launch last month. South Korea’s military said on Sunday it had detected two projectiles launched on Saturday from the North’s east coast towards the sea. The projectiles flew about 110 kilometres (68 miles) with an apogee of 25 kilometres and maximum speed of less than Mach 4, indicating they were short-range missiles. (Reuters)

  • North Korea fires suspected missile into sea

    North Korea fires suspected missile into sea

    Seoul (TIP): North Korea fired at least one suspected ballistic missile towards the sea on March 24, its neighbours’ militaries said, apparently extending its barrage of weapons tests that may culminate with a flight of its biggest-yet intercontinental ballistic missile. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff didn’t immediately say whether the weapon involved in the launch was ballistic or how far it flew. Japan’s Prime Minister’s Office Defence Ministry said the North fired a possible ballistic missile. It was North Korea’s 12th round of weapon launches this year and came after it fired suspected artillery pieces into the sea on Sunday. Experts say the North’s unusually fast pace in testing activity underscore its dual goal of advancing its weaponry and applying pressure on Washington, over a deepening freeze in nuclear negotiations. The North has also tested a variety of new missiles, including a purported hypersonic weapon and its first launch since 2017 of an intermediate range missile potentially capable of reaching Guam, a key US military hub in the Pacific.

    It also conducted two medium-range tests from near its capital area in recent weeks that the US and South Korean militaries later assessed as involving components of the North’s largest ICBM, the Hwasong-17, which they said could be tested at full range soon.

    North Korea’s official media insisted that those two tests were aimed at developing cameras and other systems for a spy satellite. Analysts say the North is clearly attempting to simultaneously resume ICBM testing and acquire some level of space-based reconnaissance capability under the pretence of a space launch, to reduce international backlash to those moves. The launch may possibly come around as a major political anniversary in April, the birthday of state founder Kim II Sung, the late grandfather of current leader Kim Jong-Un. The North’s previous ICBMs demonstrated potential range to reach the American homeland during the three flight tests in 2017.

    Its development of the larger Hwasong-17, which was first revealed in a military parade in October 2020, possibly indicates an aim to arm it with multiple warheads to overwhelm missile defences, experts say. (AP)

  • North Korean missile explodes mid-air in failed launch

    Seoul (TIP): A North Korean missile fired from its capital region exploded in mid-air in an apparent failed launch on March 16, South Korea’s military said, amid speculation that the North could soon launch its biggest long-range missile in its most significant provocation in years. Details of the missile explosion weren’t immediately known. But the launch, the 10th of its kind this year, shows North Korea is determined to press ahead on its push to modernize its weapons arsenal and pressure its rivals into making concessions amid dormant denuclearization talks. The North Korean missile blew up while it was flying at an altitude of about 20 kilometres (12.4 miles), a South Korean military official said requesting anonymity because he wasn’t publicly authorized to speak to media on the issue. He said the cause of the explosion wasn’t known. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff earlier said in a statement that the launch made from the Pyongyang region around 9.30 am apparently failed. It said South Korean and US intelligence authorities were analyzing details of the launch.

    The US Indo-Pacific Command later said that North Korea fired a ballistic missile but didn’t say whether it was a failed launch. A command statement said the launch didn’t pose an immediate threat to US territory and its allies but called on North Korea to refrain from further destabilizing acts. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary HirokazuMatsuno told reporters that a flight of a ballistic missile has not been confirmed and that Tokyo is working with Washington and Seoul to further analyze what happened.

    Experts say past failures still have moved North Korea closer to its goal of acquiring a viable nuclear arsenal that could threaten the American homeland. The US and South Korean militaries said last week that North Korea had tested an ICBM system in two recent launches, referring to the developmental Hwasong-17 missile that North Korea unveiled during a military parade in October 2020.

    In the two recent launches on February 27 and March 5, the North Korean missiles flew medium-range distances, and experts have said North Korea could eventually perform a full-range ICBM test.

    The North has said it tested cameras and other systems for a spy satellite and released what it said were photos taken from space during one of the two tests, but it didn’t confirm what rocket or missile it launched. Observers say North Korea aims to boost its ICBM capability while trying to place its first functioning spy satellite into orbit. North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un has vowed to acquire an improved ICBM and a spy satellite among an array of sophisticated weapons systems.  (AP)

  • South, North Korea have restored hotlines as leaders seek to rebuild ties

    South, North Korea have restored hotlines as leaders seek to rebuild ties

    Seoul (TIP): South and North Korea have restored hotlines that Pyongyang severed a year ago when ties deteriorated sharply, with renewed efforts by the two countries’ leaders to rebuild relations, the South’s presidential Blue House said on July 27.

    South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have exchanged multiple letters since April and agreed to reconnect the hotlines, said Moon’s press secretary, Park Soo-hyun.

    North Korea’s state media outlet, KCNA, also said all inter-Korean communication channels resumed operation at 10 a.m. Tuesday (0100 GMT) is in line with an agreement between Moon and Kim.

    “The two leaders have explored ways to recover relations by exchanging letters on several occasions, and agreed to restore severed hotlines as a first step for that process,” Park said in a statement.

    “They have also agreed to regain trust as soon as possible and foster progress on relations again.”

    KCNA touted the reopening of the hotlines as “a big stride in recovering the mutual trust and promoting reconciliation.”

    North Korea cut the hotlines in June 2020 as cross-border ties soured after a failed second summit in February 2019 between Kim and former U.S. President Donald Trump, which Moon had offered to mediate.

    The move was followed by the destruction of a joint liaison office inside the North that had been set up in 2018 to foster better ties, plunging relations between the rivals to a low point.

    Seoul’s defence ministry confirmed that a military hotline was tested on Tuesday and that twice-daily regular communication would resume.

    The Unification Ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs, also said telephone lines installed at the border truce village of Panmunjom had also been restored, welcoming it and expressing hopes for a restart of cooperation.

    Moon has called for a revival of the hotline and talks, pinning high hopes on U.S. President Joe Biden to restart negotiations aimed at dismantling North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes.

    But it was unclear whether the hotline reopenings were a serious sign that Pyongyang would respond to overtures by Moon and the Biden administration, which called for a “reliable, predictable and constructive” way to kickstart denuclearisation talks.

    “The United States has been continuing to reach out to North Korea ever since President Biden took office. I think this shows willingness on Pyongyang’s part to respond,” said James Kim of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.

    “But it is premature to read too much into these gestures,” Kim added. “We need to see some seriousness on Pyongyang’s part to move towards denuclearisation for us to say that there is genuine progress.”

    Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said exchanging information on COVID-19 and natural disasters may be a way to rebuild ties.

    North Korea has not formally confirmed any COVID-19 outbreaks, but it closed its borders and took strict anti-virus measures, seeing the pandemic as a matter of national survival.

    The announcement came as the two Koreas marked the 68th anniversary of the armistice that ended the 1950-53 Korean War.

    Kim paid tribute to fallen soldiers and sent gifts to surviving veterans, according to KCNA. Reuters

  • Kim lays blame at officials for N Korea’s economic failures

    Kim lays blame at officials for N Korea’s economic failures

    Seoul (TIP): North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ripped into the performance of his Cabinet and fired a senior economic official he appointed a month ago, saying they’d failed to come up with new ideas to salvage an economy in decay. The report by state media on Friday comes during the toughest period of Kim’s nine-year rule. The diplomacy he had hoped would lift US-led sanctions over his nuclear program is stalemated, and pandemic border closures and crop-killing natural disasters last year deepened the damage to an economy broken by decades of policy failures. Some analysts say the current challenges may set up conditions for an economic perfect storm in the North that destabilises markets and triggers public panic and unrest.

    The current challenges had forced Kim to publicly admit that past economic plans hadn’t succeeded. A new five-year plan to develop the economy was issued during the ruling Workers’ Party congress in January but Kim’s comments during the party’s Central Committee meeting — that ended on Thursday — were rich with frustration with how the plans were being executed so far.

    During Thursday’s session, Kim lamented that the Cabinet was failing in its role as the key institution managing the economy, saying it was producing unworkable plans while displaying no “innovative viewpoint and clear tactics”.

    He said the Cabinet’s targets for agricultural production this year were set unrealistically high, considering limited supplies in farming materials and other unfavourable conditions. He said the Cabinet’s targets for electricity production was set too low, showing a lack of urgency when shortages could stall work at coal mines and other industries.

    “The Cabinet failed to play a leading role in mapping out plans of key economic fields and almost mechanically brought together the numbers drafted by the ministries,” the KCNA paraphrased Kim as saying. The KCNA also said O Su Yong was named as the new director of the Central Committee’s Department of Economic Affairs during this week’s meeting, replacing Kim Tu II who was appointed in January. Kim Jong Un during the January party congress called for reasserting greater state control over the economy, boosting agricultural production and prioritising the development of chemicals and metal industries. He also vowed all-out efforts to bolster his nuclear weapons programme in comments that were seen as an attempt to pressure the new Biden administration.

    Sectors such as metal and chemicals would be crucial to North Korean hopes to revitalise industrial production that has been decimated by sanctions and halted imports of factory materials amid the pandemic. However, most experts agree that North Korea’s new development plans aren’t meaningfully different from its previous ones that lacked in substance.

    South Korean intelligence officials have said there are also signs that the North is taking dramatic steps to strengthen government control over markets, including suppressing the use of US dollars and other foreign currencies. Such measures, which are apparently aimed at forcing people to exchange their foreign currency savings for the North Korean Won, demonstrate the government’s sense of urgency over its depleting foreign currency reserves, analysts say. AP

  • An improbable friendship

    An improbable friendship

    “Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un have stunned the world. They may yet surprise us by pulling off a détente.”

    “With Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim, it is difficult to predict how the process will unfold but it is a new opening. One can almost visualize Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim telling each other as they said their goodbyes in Singapore: “I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship.”

    By Rakesh Sood
    “Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn’t,” wrote Mark Twain. Nothing proves it better than the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore on Tuesday. No reality TV show could have scripted an episode with greater suspense and drama than what the two leaders successfully imparted to their meeting.

    Mr. Trump, the 72-year-old leader of one of the world’s oldest democracies, an $18 trillion economy with a 1.3 million strong military, of whom 28,500 troops are deployed in South Korea, and Chairman Kim, at 34 the third-generation leader of a totalitarian state with an impoverished economy estimated at less than $40 billion and a military force of 1.2 million with a newly acquired nuclear capability, make for an unusual couple. And yet, as Mr. Trump said, “From the beginning we got along.” Describing Mr. Kim as “very talented”, he recalled with a degree of empathy that the North Korean had faced a challenge when he took over his country at just 26 years.

    Art of making friends

    Less than a year ago, the heightened rhetoric on both sides had led to growing concerns about the possibility of a nuclear exchange as North Korea ramped up its nuclear and missile testing programs. In September 2017, it conducted its sixth nuclear test, declaring it a thermonuclear device, a claim that has been disputed. However, with a yield of 100-300 kt (kiloton), it marked a significant improvement from earlier tests. Four of the six tests have been undertaken by Mr. Kim with a view to miniaturizing the device to fit a missile warhead.

    Simultaneously, he accelerated the missile program conducting over 80 flight tests during the last seven years, compared to 16 undertaken by his father from 1994 to 2011. At least three new missiles have been successfully tested and inducted. These include the Musudan (around 3,500 km), Hwasong 12 (4,500 km) and Hwasong 14 (around 10,000 km). Last November, Hwasong 15 was tested with a range estimated at 13,000 km, making it clear that North Korea was close to developing the capability to target the U.S. mainland.

    Mr. Trump warned North Korea with “fire and fury like the world has never seen”. North Korea responded by threatening to hit Guam “enveloping it in fire”. Mr. Trump announced that “military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded”. The UN Security Council met repeatedly, tightening economic sanctions on North Korea. Mr. Trump described Mr. Kim as a “rocket man on a suicide mission for himself and his regime” while North Korea vowed to “tame the mentally deranged U.S. dotard with fire”. Russia and China appealed for restraint, proposing a “freeze for freeze”, calling on the U.S. to stop military exercises with South Korea in return for North Korea halting its nuclear and missile testing.

    Beginnings of a thaw

    The situation began to change with Mr. Kim’s New Year’s address indicating that North Korea had achieved its nuclear deterrent capability and offering a new opening in relations with South Korea as it prepared to host the Winter Olympics in February. Things moved rapidly thereafter. The two Korean teams marched together at the opening ceremony and the presence of Mr. Kim’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, added a dash of bonhomie to the soft diplomacy.

    Two senior South Korean officials visited Pyongyang in early March. Over a long dinner conversation, Mr. Kim indicated continued restraint on testing and willingness to discuss denuclearization of the Korean peninsula if military threats to North Korea decreased and regime safety was guaranteed. The testing restraint was formally declared on April 21, a week before the summit between the two Korean leaders on April 27 in Panmunjom, which was acclaimed a success.

    The U.S. was kept fully briefed by South Korean officials and in early March Mr. Trump indicated readiness to meet Mr. Kim, leading to heightened speculation about mismatched expectations all around. Even after two visits by Mike Pompeo (first as CIA chief and then as Secretary of State) and the release of three Americans sentenced for spying, there were hiccups when National Security Adviser John Bolton held up the “Libyan model” for North Korea’s disarmament and the U.S. launched air combat exercises together with South Korea. North Korea responded angrily. The summit was put off, followed by an exchange of conciliatory letters between the two leaders amid mounting suspense, and on June 1 the summit was reinstated.

    There have been previous attempts by the U.S. to address concerns regarding North Korea’s nuclear program. The first was the 1994 Agreed Framework after North Korea threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This was annulled by the Bush administration in 2002 with the ‘axis of evil’ speech. Consequently, North Korea withdrew from the NPT. The Six Party talks (second round) were initiated in 2004, resulting in a joint statement the following year reiterating commitment to denuclearization, with a peace treaty and security guarantees to be concluded. The process collapsed when the U.S. imposed new sanctions, and in 2006 North Korea conducted its first nuclear test.

    Changed situation

    Since then, the situation has changed. The old process is dead; North Korean capabilities have grown dramatically, increasing anxiety especially in South Korea and Japan and Chinese worries about U.S. deployment of missile defense in South Korea. There are challenges too. The U.S. would ideally like complete, verifiable and irreversible disarmament as would Japan. North Korea seeks regime legitimacy and regime security together with sanctions relief while reducing its dependency on China. China would like to prolong the process to ensure its centrality. And South Korea would like to lower tensions while retaining the American presence. Reconciling these needs time and sustained dialogue.

    The Joint Statement in Singapore is shy on detail but carries political promise. Instead of obsessing on the nuclear issue, it reflects clear recognition that a new beginning in U.S.-North Korea relations is possible only by replacing the 1953 Armistice Agreement with a permanent peace treaty and that regime security guarantee for North Korea is a prerequisite for denuclearization. Mr. Trump has accepted that the denuclearization process will take time, but he wants to take it to a point that makes it irreversible. The affirmation of the Panmunjom Declaration (signed between the two Korean leaders in April) means that bilateral normalization between the two Koreas will move apace and a meeting involving the U.S. and possibly China to conclude a peace treaty can happen by end-2018.

    Mr. Trump’s unilateral announcements at the press conference are equally promising. He announced suspension of joint military exercises with South Korea and indicated that North Korea would dismantle a major missile engine testing site. There is no sanctions relief yet but given the changing psychological backdrop, it is likely that there may be a loosening by China and Russia.

    Summit diplomacy has a mixed record. In 1972, U.S. President Richard Nixon travelled to China for the first summit with Chairman Mao Zedong leading to a realignment of political forces whose impact is still reverberating. In 1986, U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev met in Reykjavik, coming close to agreement on abolition of all nuclear weapons till realpolitik eventually prevailed.

    With Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim, it is difficult to predict how the process will unfold but it is a new opening. One can almost visualize Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim telling each other as they said their goodbyes in Singapore: “I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship.”

    (The author is a former diplomat and currently Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.  He can be reached at  rakeshsood2001@yahoo.com)

     

  • Trump-Kim summit – Can the virus of informal summits proliferate?

    Trump-Kim summit – Can the virus of informal summits proliferate?

    Practitioners of old-style diplomacy are yet to catch their breath after the curtains had come down on the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore. No black-suited diplomat sat across the table to thrust and parry, no preparatory meetings of the alphabet soup of security advisory bodies burnt the midnight oil. Yet, by all accounts the summit concluded on a positive note. This is a huge takeaway, for the Korean Peninsula dispute is rated as among the world’s intractable, frozen-in-time animosities that bigger statesmen have opted to tip-toe around. That Kim and Trump, both looked down upon as neophytes among the hard-bitten big boys of global diplomacy, appear to be cracking open a puzzle that eluded past deal makers like Bill Clinton, may well be a pointer to political leaders taking matters into their hands rather than wait for tenured diplomats and intelligence officials to conduct the preliminary spadework.

    PM Modi has also tried his hand at springing diplomatic surprises: the invite to all SAARC heads of government at his prime ministerial swearing-in ceremony and the surprise touchdown in Pakistan were meant to unlock a dispute through an informal approach. Modi unlike Trump, however, missed a vital trick — he failed to consult other players who also have equally interested fingers in the South Asian pie. The US and North Korea avoided a pushback or a spoiler attempt like the Pathankot attack by whirlwind diplomacy that drew in Russia and China. PM Modi now seems to be taking a similar approach by long deliberative sessions with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the two major players in the region.

    Old-school diplomats would look askance at these unusual efforts to break ice. But similar acts of creativeness — Indira Gandhi-Bhutto clinching the Simla agreement without aides or Henry Kissinger’s secret visit to Beijing that unfroze the Sino-US deadlock — establish that history is made with acts of political will, with or without the diplomatic entourage. The subcontinent needs one such moment in its backyard. If the Trump-Kim bromance endures, PM Modi won’t be averse to a second informal shot at enduring peace in the neighborhood.

    (Tribune, India)

  • Half of Americans back Trump’s handling of North Korea: Poll

    Half of Americans back Trump’s handling of North Korea: Poll

    WASHINGTON(TIP): According to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Wednesday, June 13, just over half of all Americans say they approve of how President Donald Trump has handled North Korea, but only a quarter think that his summit this week with Kim Jong Un will lead to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, according to a

    In a joint declaration following their meeting in Singapore on Tuesday, June 12 the North Korean leader pledged to move toward complete denuclearization of the peninsula and Trump vowed to guarantee the security of the United States’ old foe. Forty percent of those polled said they did not believe the countries would stick to their commitments.

    Another 26 percent said they believed the United States and North Korea would meet their commitments, while 34 percent said they did not know whether they would follow through.

    Thirty-nine percent believe the summit has lowered the threat of nuclear war between the United States and nuclear-armed North Korea, slightly more than the 37 percent who said they did not believe it changed anything.

    Trump has pursued what he calls a “maximum pressure” campaign” against Pyongyang to force it to give up its nuclear weapons. He toughened up international sanctions to further isolate North Korea and then agreed to meet directly with Kim after South Korea’s president convinced him that the North was committed to giving up its nuclear weapons.

    The Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests the Republican president has broad support for one of his biggest foreign policy efforts, despite criticism from non-proliferation experts that Trump had exacted few concrete commitments from Kim on Tuesday on dismantling his nuclear arsenal.

    Republicans appear much more enthusiastic than Democrats about the potential benefits of the summit. The poll found that Republicans were twice as likely as Democrats to say that the meeting lowered the threat of nuclear war, and they were three times as likely to say that both sides would follow through on their commitments.

    Democrats typically give Trump low approval ratings – only 12 percent approve of his overall job performance. But about 30 percent said they approved of his handling of North Korea.

    Trump, who returned to Washington early on Wednesday, hailed the meeting with Kim, the first between a sitting US president and a North Korean leader, as a success that had removed the North Korean nuclear threat. Their seemingly friendly meeting was in sharp contrast to their tit-for-tat insults and bellicose rhetoric late last year while Pyongyang carried out its biggest nuclear and missile tests.

    In the poll, Trump received a 51 percent approval rating for his handling of North Korea and also led the list of leaders who should take the most credit for the summit and the joint pledge. Forty percent say the former real estate developer should take the most credit, followed by South Korean President Moon Jae-in with 11 percent. Kim was third with 7 percent.

    Trump has repeatedly touted his role in bringing the reclusive North Korea to the negotiating table, a feat that he says his predecessors were unable to pull off.

  • Donald Trump: ‘Major, major’ conflict with North Korea possible

    Donald Trump: ‘Major, major’ conflict with North Korea possible

    WASHINGTON (TIP): US President Donald Trump said on April 27 a major conflict with North Korea is possible in the standoff over its nuclear and missile programs, but he would prefer a diplomatic outcome to the dispute.

    “There is a chance that we could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea. Absolutely,” Trump told Reuters in an Oval Office interview ahead of his 100th day in office on Saturday.

    Nonetheless, Trump said he wanted to peacefully resolve a crisis that has bedeviled multiple US presidents, a path that he and his administration are emphasizing by preparing a variety of new economic sanctions while not taking the military option off the table.

    “We’d love to solve things diplomatically but it’s very difficult,” he said.

    In other highlights of the 42-minute interview, Trump was cool to speaking again with Taiwan’s president after an earlier telephone call with her angered China. He also said he wanted South Korea to pay the cost of the US THAAD anti-missile defense system, which he estimated at $1 billion. He said he intended to renegotiate or terminate a US free trade pact with South Korea because of a deep trade deficit with Seoul.Trump said he was considering adding stops to Israel and Saudi Arabia to a Europe trip next month, emphasizing he wanted to see an Israeli-Palestinian peace. Trump said North Korea was his biggest global challenge. He lavished praise on Chinese President Xi Jinping for Chinese assistance in trying to rein in Pyongyang. The two leaders met in Florida earlier this month. “I believe he is trying very hard. He certainly doesn’t want to see turmoil and death. He doesn’t want to see it. He is a good man. He is a very good man and I got to know him very well.

    “With that being said, he loves China and he loves the people of China. I know he would like to be able to do something, perhaps it’s possible that he can’t,” Trump said.

    ‘I hope he’s rational’ : Trump spoke just a day after he and his top national security advisers briefed US lawmakers on the North Korean threat and one day before Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will press the United Nations Security Council on sanctions to further isolate Pyongyang over its nuclear and missile programs.

    The Trump administration on Wednesday declared North Korea “an urgent national security threat and top foreign policy priority.” It said it was focusing on economic and diplomatic pressure, including Chinese cooperation in containing its defiant neighbor and ally, and remained open to negotiations.

    US officials said military strikes remained an option but played down the prospect, though the administration has sent an aircraft carrier and a nuclear-powered submarine to the region in a show of force. Any direct US military action would run the risk of massive North Korean retaliation and huge casualties in Japan and South Korea and among US forces in both countries.

    Trump, asked if he considered North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to be rational, said he was operating from the assumption that he is rational. He noted that Kim had taken over his country at an early age.