The Indian Panorama

Tag: NSO

  • Indian economy estimated to grow at 7% in current fiscal: NSO

    Indian economy estimated to grow at 7% in current fiscal: NSO

    New Delhi (TIP)- The country’s GDP at constant prices will grow by over Rs 10 lakh crore more during the current fiscal (FY22-23) as compared to the previous fiscal (FY 2021-22). This translates into growth in real GDP during FY23 at 7% as compared to 8.7% in FY22, according to the First Advance Estimates of National Income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).

    Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 157.60 lakh crore, as against the provisional estimate of GDP for 2021-22 of Rs 147.36 lakh crore.

    Largely tallies with RBI’s 6.8% projection

    The projections are much lower than government’s earlier forecast of 8-8.5% growth but above the RBI’s projection of 6.8%. The first advance GDP estimates, which are used to work out allocations and other fiscal projections for the next Budget due on February 1, proved to be more optimistic than the actual growth in three out of the last four years. The projections suggest that despite the global headwinds and continued geopolitical uncertainty caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the recovery is on track though there are pressure points. The 7% GDP growth in 2022-23 largely tallies with the RBI’s forecast made in December of GDP growth of 6.8% and the World Bank’s estimation of 6.9%.

    Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 273.08 lakh crore, as against the provisional estimate of GDP for 2021-22 of Rs 236.65 lakh crore. The growth in nominal GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 15.4% as compared to 19.5% in 2021-22.

    Was 8.7% in 2021-2022

    At constant prices, the GDP will grow by over Rs 10L crore more during the current fiscal as compared to the previous fiscal, as per NSO estimates. Real GDP in 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 157.60 lakh crore, as against the provisional estimate of GDP for 2021-22 of Rs 147.36 lakh crore. Big decline in the output of the manufacturing sector to 1.6% projected as against the growth of 9.9% in 2021-22.

    Agri sector It is expected to grow at 3.5% compared to 3% in the previous fiscal.

    Mining It is likely to grow at 2.4% from last fiscal’s 11.5% report inside.

    The projections show a big decline in the output of the manufacturing sector to 1.6% as against growth of 9.9% in 2021-22. The agriculture sector is expected to grow at 3.5% compared to 3% in the previous fiscal. The mining sector is likely to grow at 2.4% from last fiscal’s 11.5%. Private final consumption expenditure, whose rise could boost demand, is forecast to rise by 7.7% in 2022-23 as compared to the previous fiscal. Gross fixed capital formation is estimated to rise around 11.5% in the current fiscal. The electricity sector is likely to grow at 9%, compared to 7.5% in the last fiscal. Trade and hotels growth is expected to be a healthy 13.7% from last fiscal’s 11.1%, showing the effects of Covid in this contact-intensive industry are wearing off. In finance and real estate, the growth is estimated at 6.4% as against 4.2% in the last fiscal.

                    Source: TNS

  • Retail inflation stays below 6% for 2nd month

    New Delhi (TIP)- Continuing moderation in food prices brought retail inflation to a 12-month low of 5.7% in December 2022 , data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed. In another set of statistics released by NSO, industrial activity posted a sharp jump to 7.1% growth in the month of November. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) numbers have positively surprised analysts. A Bloomberg forecast of economists had projected December inflation to be 7.9% while November IIP was expected to be just 2.8%. To be sure, experts are more sceptical about the prospects of a manufacturing revival than the downward trend in inflation, which makes the February Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the RBI an important event in the economic calendar. Indeed, some economists are already recommending that the central bank suspend its rate tightening cycle in February.

    “Against the evolving landscape, we see little incentive for further rate hike, with synchronised past actions on rate front yet to show the full impact. The next policy statement is due on Feb 6-8 and just comes after the Union budget on Feb 1 and also after the FOMC policy statement on Jan 31-1, first in 2023, giving impetus to data driven stance,” said Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser, State Bank of India. India’s benchmark inflation rate, as measured by CPI stood at 5.72% in December 2022. This is the lowest monthly inflation print since December 2021, the third consecutive month of a dip, and the second consecutive month when it has stayed below the 6% mark, the upper limit of RBI’s tolerance band. The data also shows that inflation for the quarter ending December is just 6.1%, which is lower than the 6.6% forecast by MPC in its December 2022 meeting. MPC had overestimated inflation in the immediate quarter in its June and September meeting as well.     Source: HT

  • WB retains India’s growth forecast at 8.3%

    WB retains India’s growth forecast at 8.3%

    New delhi (TIP)- The World Bank has retained India’s economic growth forecast for the current fiscal at 8.3% as the recovery is yet to become broad-based.

    As per the first advanced estimates of the national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) last week, the economy is projected to grow at 9.2% in 2021-22, surpassing pre-Covid level in actual terms, mainly on account of improved performance, especially in farm, mining and manufacturing sectors.

    “India’s economy is expected to expand by 8.3% in fiscal year 2021/22 (ending March 2022), unchanged from last June’s forecast as the recovery is yet to become broad-based. “The economy should benefit from the resumption of contact-intensive services, and ongoing but narrowing monetary and fiscal policy support,” the World Bank said in its latest Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday.  Source:  PTI