New Delhi does not have deep pockets with surplus funds like China to positively impact policies of other countries.
“The absence of a power leverage explains the cozying up of Bangladesh with Pakistan despite Dhaka knowing well the pitfalls of neglecting its big neighbor which helped it get independence. We now have another border to tend and it would be interesting to see which party comes to power in the forthcoming national elections.”
India’s neighborhood has become complex. Setting aside PR rhetoric, to say that New Delhi has no true friends on its borders (barring Bhutan) would not be wrong. By any yardstick, the political power of a nation with a $4-trillion economy (fourth largest in the world) should catalyze relations with its neighbors to its advantage. That it is not exactly so needs a clinical assessment.
Pakistan as an adversary is a no-brainer and so too is China — notwithstanding the handshakes in public between PM Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in September 2025.
While Islamabad would be feeling hurt considering the statement made by the Indian Air Force on May 10, last year, with its deadly pan-Pakistan precision strikes on military installations, it would also be planning to get back — not necessarily through a kinetic engagement; one is already seeing some increased terrorist activity in the Valley.
Relations with China are more complex since we are dependent on it in more ways than one in non-military areas and yet, militarily, have to match them 24×7 — man for man, tank for tank on our northern borders. With Beijing aiming for a multiple aircraft carrier navy, it would not be long before a PLAN carrier group makes a foray in the Indian Ocean, mandating another front for New Delhi to address.
But what about the others with whom India shares land and maritime contiguity? A color-coded map of India’s neighborhood friends would have more shades of red than blue. The osmotic effects of New Delhi’s economic, military and cultural positioning, that should have translated to positive influence around us, are conspicuous by their absence.
Writing on what constitutes power, strategist George Friedman has termed it an intangible entity; the ambiguity that real power exudes about the likely future course of action (deterrent or kinetic) is what gives it the coercive quotient. A nation has to reach that standing in the power matrix to enable it to sway sentiment in its favor without going kinetic.
Have we, instead of nursing relationships with our neighbors, jumped the starter’s gun and started expecting deference that automatically accrues to real power?
In 2011, cautioning against mistaking influence and weight with power, India’s then NSA Shiv Shankar Menon had said that “For a considerable amount of time, India will be a major power with several poor people. Power is the ability to create and sustain outcomes — weight we have, our influence is growing, but our power remains to grow and should first be used for our domestic transformation.”
The absence of a power leverage explains the cozying up of Bangladesh with Pakistan despite Dhaka knowing well the pitfalls of neglecting its big neighbor which helped it get independence. We now have another border to tend and it would be interesting to see which party comes to power in the forthcoming national elections.
In Nepal, the Chinese have already made inroads through infrastructure projects (rail, roads, energy) and digital technology programs. Their tourist inflows have also increased substantially with direct air and road connectivity. Indian media has not helped with its intrusive behavior as the scenes of ‘Indian media go back’ witnessed in the 2015 earthquake were seen again during the Gen-Z uprising.
The story has been similar in the Maldives and Sri Lanka when new governments took office. Luckily, the downturn seems to be reversing — but there is still a fair distance to cover. Myanmar has to be watched, considering the deep Chinese inroads there and our unsettled and volatile North-East.
Despite these unhelpful vibes, the Budget allocates developmental assistance to many of these neighbors since we share centuries-old cultural ties and are mindful of social sensitivities of our own border communities as well. So, where lies the problem when India has always been helpful, even ferrying items as basic as water to the Maldives?
The answer lies in the question posed earlier — “have we jumped the starter’s gun and are confusing influence and weight with power?”
On the hard power matrix, despite a welcome increase in defense exports, the growth of our military industrial complex has yet to impact India’s unenviable position as the second largest arms importer in the world — this, without factoring in the $3.25-billion Rafale import coming up soon.
A GDP of $4 trillion is excellent, but the per capita GDP where India is 143rd in world rankings, is the true determinant of a nation’s economic depth. With millions still below the poverty line requiring succor, New Delhi does not have deep pockets with surplus funds like China to positively impact policies of other countries.
The worldwide upheaval due to Trump’s arm-twisting edicts has shown what real economic power can do — the Venezuela regime change has hardly created any condemnation and the usurping of Greenland, if it happens, would be another validation of the analysis of Thucydides in 404 BCE: “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”
China too is no exception —the use of its monopoly on rare earths to keep the US tariffs at bay is an example.
So, even as our diplomats burn the midnight oil working their charm, let us continue on the path of an economic surge that has been the vision of all governments since Independence.
If our endeavors for a Viksit Bharat by 2047 are to remain focused, then amicable relations with neighbors are a sine qua non.
Till then, to avoid being ‘the ugly Indian’ and frittering away goodwill in our neighborhood, our talk and actions should heed the Margaret Thatcher view that “Being powerful is being like a lady; if you have to say you are, you aren’t.”
(Air Vice Marshal Manmohan Bahadur Retd is Ex-Addl Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies)
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