On September 17, 2025, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement in Riyadh. The pact formalizes their alliance with a collective defense clause, stating that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both”. It was signed less than two weeks after an Israeli strike on Doha, which left Gulf States wary of US security guarantees.
The agreement upgrades the long-standing defense cooperation between Islamabad and Riyadh, institutionalizing a historically close security relationship rooted in shared faith and strategic interests. For decades, Pakistan has provided security support, including training and deploying troops to Saudi Arabia. The strengthened defense ties follow Saudi Arabia’s significant financial support to Pakistan’s struggling economy, including multi-billion dollar loans.
A Saudi-Pak joint statement said that “Building on a partnership extending nearly eight decades, and grounded in bonds of brotherhood, Islamic solidarity and shared strategic interests, the two sides signed the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement”.
From Pakistan’s viewpoint, by securing a collective defense agreement with a wealthy and influential Gulf ally, it gains a strategic boost which could be perceived as bolstering Islamabad’s position, especially at a time of high tension with India. The pact’s collective defense clause, stating that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” adds a new and complex dimension to the India-Pakistan rivalry. While Saudi Arabia has not historically intervened militarily in India-Pakistan conflicts, the official language raises concerns that Pakistan might be emboldened, potentially complicating India’s response to future acts of terrorism originating from Pakistan.
The mutual defense pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has implications for India, impacting regional security dynamics, diplomacy and India’s growing relationship with Saudi Arabia. The pact introduces a new layer of complexity to the India-Pakistan security dynamics. In the event of a future conflict, Pakistan could attempt to portray any Indian military action as an act of aggression against Saudi Arabia as well, potentially leveraging the collective defense language of the pact.
Thus, India’s primary concern is that the deal could embolden Pakistan and alter the regional balance of power. India has so far maintained a cautious and measured diplomatic posture. The ministry of external affairs stated that it would study the pact and protect India’s national interests, but avoided a stronger reaction.
What is the importance of this pact for Saudi Arabia? Analysts have long speculated that in exchange for financial support, Pakistan could extend a “nuclear umbrella” to Saudi Arabia, which is non-nuclear but has expressed interest in developing nuclear capabilities if Iran does. The new pact, while not explicitly referencing nuclear arms, renews this speculation and alters the strategic calculus for West Asia.
Thus, Saudi interest in the pact is due to Pakistan’s status as a nuclear power. The symbolic significance of Saudi Arabia aligning with a nuclear-armed state could affect the strategic calculations of regional players. Some reports indicate that discussions included nuclear technology and delivery systems, though no official confirmation has been made. By formalizing the alliance with the only Muslim-majority nuclear power, Saudi Arabia has reasserted its standing in the Islamic world during a period of increased criticism over Israel‘s actions.
The agreement shows that Riyadh continues to see significant value in its partnership with Islamabad. The mutual defense pact formalizes and upgrades a security relationship, sending a strong signal to regional rivals Iran and Israel that Saudi Arabia has additional security options beyond its traditional partnerships such as the one with the US. The agreement aims to “strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression” and deepen defense cooperation across various fields. A senior Saudi official did not specify whether the pact includes Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal but noted that the deal “encompasses all military means,” cultivating deliberate ambiguity.
India has steadily deepened ties with Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia, while Pakistan’s economic reliance on Saudi financial aid has grown. The defense pact signals that Riyadh continues to see significant value in its partnership with Pakistan, challenging the narrative that Islamabad was becoming isolated in its extended neighborhood.
Saudi Arabia is an important trading partner for India, with bilateral trade far outweighing its trade with Pakistan. Saudi officials have been quick to reassure India that their partnership is “more robust than ever,” signaling a desire to avoid jeopardizing the strong economic relationship with India. A recent visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Riyadh in April 2025 and the expansion of the Strategic Partnership Council demonstrate a continued focus on strengthening ties across investment, energy, and defense.
New Delhi has been steadily strengthening its strategic and economic ties with Riyadh, with trade and defense cooperation expanding significantly. The new defense pact with Pakistan, however, adds a layer of complexity to this growing relationship. While Saudi officials have stressed that ties with India are robust, the defense agreement introduces a new complication to Riyadh’s delicate balancing act between New Delhi and Islamabad.
Saudi officials may reassure India that this lucrative relationship will not be jeopardized by the new agreement with Pakistan. They will convey to us that Saudi Arabia will remain committed to safeguarding its relationship with India. Despite this, the pact could complicate India’s ability to retaliate against Pakistan without the risk of drawing in Saudi Arabia.
India will have to closely watch how the pact is implemented and what operational meaning is given to the collective defense clause. The ultimate impact will depend on Riyadh’s specific actions, not just the symbolism of the agreement. There can be no doubt that the agreement presents a diplomatic challenge to India and could impact its ties with Riyadh. The agreement shifts the regional balance of power by formally tying a nuclear-armed Pakistan to the Gulf’s security architecture.
While India’s core military deterrence against Pakistan is not expected to be affected, the pact complicates India’s foreign policy challenges by formalizing a long-standing alliance between these two key regional powers. By securing formal Saudi backing, Pakistan may feel emboldened to take a harder line on issues like Kashmir, terrorism, and water rights. This could complicate India’s security calculations, especially following the April 2025 Pahalgam attack, and potentially undermine India’s doctrine of punitive deterrence. If Saudi financial aid or oil subsidies flow towards Pakistan’s military, it could help modernize the Pakistani armed forces, creating a better-equipped adversary for India. Thus, the challenge for India is to ensure that Riyadh’s economic engagement with New Delhi will prevent the defense pact with Pakistan from directly targeting Indian security interests.
( Prabhu Dayal is a former ambassador)
(The article was originally published in The Hindustan Times)
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