The Indian Panorama

Tag: SAD

  • This political relationship is just one-way traffic

    This political relationship is just one-way traffic

    In its political alignments, the Bharatiya Janata Party reaps a political fortune while its alliance partners stare at losses
    “The SAD had been a member of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance since 1996. The alliance came to power in Punjab in 2007. It created history in the State in 2012 when the combine could buck anti-incumbency, to get a consecutive term. But the SAD which prides itself as the spokesperson of farmers was not consulted by the BJP before the introduction of the controversial farm laws. The alliance broke in 2020, and in the 2022 State Assembly elections, the SAD got just three seats in a legislature of 117 seats, paving the way for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to form the government. In order to revive its fortunes, the SAD decided to fight on its own in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and has won one seat. The SAD, due to its ill-fated alliance with the BJP, was forced to concede political space to new entrant AAP, and also help the Congress in a revival of its political fortunes.”

    By A S Panneerselvan

    There has been a constant erosion in the political fortunes of the parties that have aligned with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over the last three decades. There has been a discernible transfer of dividends to the BJP and losses for those which have provided support.

    A historical look documents the inherent one-way traffic in this political relationship. Let us look at the status of the two of the earliest alliance partners of the BJP, i.e., the Shiv Sena (SS) in Maharashtra and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab. The Sena with 15 Lok Sabha seats, and the SAD with eight were the only partners to back the BJP when it staked claim to form the government under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1996. Despite ruling for 13 days the BJP could not attract any new political alliances, which led to the formation of the United Front government, led by H.D. Deve Gowda. The Sena and the BJP came together in the 1984 Lok Sabha election. The alliance was cemented on the Hindutva fulcrum in 1989.

    In Maharashtra, Punjab and Assam
    The demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992 and the ruinous Mumbai riots in 1992-93 paved the way for the first Sena-BJP government in Maharashtra in 1995, with Manohar Joshi of the Sena as Chief Minister. The accepted formula was that the Sena would call the shots in Maharashtra and that the BJP could determine the political trajectory on the national turf. But soon, the BJP grew ambitious. It jettisoned the equation and demanded more seats for itself in the 2014 Assembly elections.

    It was the BJP that broke alliance in 2014, says Shiv Sena (UBT)

    When the Sena refused to concede primacy in the State, the alliance broke. The BJP formed the government in Maharashtra, with Devendra Fadnavis as Chief Minister, which accelerated the downward slide. When the Sena managed to gain power by forming a post-poll alliance with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Indian National Congress in 2019, the BJP ensured a split in both the regional parties, namely the NCP and the Sena, and had their symbols frozen. The popular term ‘Operation Lotus’ used by television channels, really meant the one way shift of strengths from other parties to the BJP.

    The SAD had been a member of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance since 1996. The alliance came to power in Punjab in 2007. It created history in the State in 2012 when the combine could buck anti-incumbency, to get a consecutive term. But the SAD which prides itself as the spokesperson of farmers was not consulted by the BJP before the introduction of the controversial farm laws. The alliance broke in 2020, and in the 2022 State Assembly elections, the SAD got just three seats in a legislature of 117 seats, paving the way for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to form the government. In order to revive its fortunes, the SAD decided to fight on its own in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and has won one seat. The SAD, due to its ill-fated alliance with the BJP, was forced to concede political space to new entrant AAP, and also help the Congress in a revival of its political fortunes.

    The story of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) is illustrative as the Assam party has been in on-alliance-off-alliance mode with the BJP since 2001. The AGP was forced to witness one of its important leaders, Sarbananda Sonowal, being absorbed into the BJP and being anointed as the Chief Minister. He is now a part of the BJP-led NDA’s Union Cabinet. The AGP was the dominant player when the alliance was established, but within two decades, the BJP has become the key player. In the just concluded Lok Sabha election, the BJP has won nine seats while the AGP won just one, out of the 14 seats in Assam.

    The case of other regional parties
    This story has regional variations when it comes to the fortune of four other regional political parties: the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagam (AIADMK). These parties extended vital numerical support to the BJP in its push to implement several laws that were widely perceived as partisan in character. Most of these Bills undermined the federal balance. It is vital to remember the BJP was able to pass many Bills in Lok Sabha on account of its own majority. However, in the Rajya Sabha, these regional parties played the key role to pass the Bills as the BJP did not have adequate numbers.

    What is the status of these parties now? How did the BJP treat them? Barring the Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), which has mastered the trapeze act with aplomb, all the others are now non-entities.

    In Odisha, out of the 21 seats, the BJP has won 20 seats while the BJD has no representation.

    In Telangana, out of the 17 seats, the BJP has eight seats and the BRS has zero. In Andhra Pradesh, out of the 25 seats, the BJP-led NDA (the Telugu Desam Party 16, BJP 3 and the Janasena Party, 2) has won 21 while the YSRCP has been reduced to four seats.

    In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK is splintered into three factions. While the Edappadi K. Palaniswami faction has the official recognition and the poll symbol, the other two factions led by O. Panneerselvam and T.T.V. Dhinakaran are posing a stiff challenge to the official faction of the AIADMK in southern Tamil Nadu. The reality is that all these three factions have drawn a blank despite their blind support to the BJP’s centralization spree undertaken through hurried legislative moves in Parliament. The BJD, the BRS, the YSRCP and the AIADMK have lost their respective States in the bargain.

    And, the fate of Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is a poignant story. It shared power with the BJP a few months before the dramatic watering down of Article 370. Now it is without representation in Parliament.

    It is evident that the BJP takes over the strengths of the parties it allies with and transfers its own weakness onto them. Its embrace is often seen as a fatal embrace. One is only left with a question. Can the JD(U) and the TDP now escape the deadly embrace?

    (The author is a fellow of the Roja Muthiah Research Library, Chennai)

  • BJP retains power in 4 States; AAP Tsunami decimates stalwarts in Punjab

    BJP retains power in 4 States; AAP Tsunami decimates stalwarts in Punjab

    Uttarakhand votes for BJP, but CM Dhami loses; BJP to form govt in Goa with Independents, MGP; Adityanath back with higher vote share but  fewer seats; AAP wins 92 of 117 seats in Punjab, In Manipur, BJP wins 32 seats in 60-member House

    NEW DELHI / NEW YORK (TIP): The BJP retained power in all the four States that it was governing  while the Congress lost Punjab to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The AAP said it has emerged as the “natural, national” alternative to the BJP, even as the Congress declined to a new low of just 18 seats in Punjab, 2 in UP, 18 in Uttarakhand, 12 in Goa , and 5 in Manipur.

    The BJP held on to power in Uttar Pradesh, where it won two-thirds of the seats (274), compared to three-fourths in 2017. The Samajwadi Party succeeded in improving upon its 2017 performance by bagging 124 seats. The BJP’s vote share though increased in U.P., Goa and Manipur. The party conclusively won Uttarakhand, and won enough seats to retain power in Manipur and Goa — three States where its main rival was the Congress. “This is a seal of approval by the people for the BJP’s pro-poor, proactive governance,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at the party headquarters on Thursday, March 10  evening. “We will learn from this,” Congress leader Rahul Gandhi posted on Twitter. In U.P., the Samajwadi Party doubled its 2017 tally but fell far short of a majority, in the second consecutive Assembly election defeat under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav, who did not comment on the results. His call for a coalition of Ambedkarites and Samajwadis — a euphemism for Dalits and Other Backward Classes — had takers as the increase in SP’s vote share shows, but nowhere enough to dislodge the BJP. Bolstered by Hindutva, welfarism, and expansive accommodation of OBCs and Dalits, the BJP stayed ahead of the SP across all regions of the State.

    Swami Prasad Maurya, an OBC leader who switched from the BJP to the SP on the eve of the elections lost his own seat; in west U.P., the SP’s alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal dented the BJP but only marginally. “This is a victory of nationalism and good governance,” Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath told an ecstatic crowd at the party office in Lucknow, concluding his speech with calls of “Jai Shriram”.

    In Punjab, the AAP harnessed the resentment against the Congress and the Akali Dal that have been alternating in power, to build a decisive momentum that won it 92 of the 117 seats in the State. The Congress won 18 and the BJP two, which is as many as what the Congress won in U.P.

    AAP with 92 seats has created history as never before has a  single party in Punjab   won as many seats. The highest number of 93 seats was once won by the coalition of SAD and BJP.

    “This is a revolution,” AAP founder and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said. “First this revolution happened in Delhi, then in Punjab and it will now happen all over country,” he said.

    Party leader Raghav Chadha said Mr. Kejriwal would become the Prime Minister of the country one day. The AAP will have two Chief Ministers now- one in Delhi and another in Punjab which is as many as what the Congress has.

    The Congress’s last minute efforts to rescue its fortunes in Punjab, which elected one-fifths of its Lok Sabha members, through a leadershipchange that brought Charanjit Singh Channi at the helm did not bear fruit. The party’s halfhearted attempt to profit from his Dalit identity appears to have alienated dominant social groups such as Jatt Sikhs. Mr. Channi lost both seats that he contested.

    The father-son duo that helms the SAD — Sukhbir Singh Badal and Prakash Singh Badal — both former CMs, lost their seats, even as the party finished with just four seats in its second consecutive rout. Mr. Modi said the voters have punished dynastic parties, referring to the setbacks to the SP, RLD, SAD and the Congress, all controlled by particular families for generations.

    (With inputs from agencies)

  • President’s rule in Punjab is not a good idea

    One has been hearing a demand by certain sections of politicians, both in Delhi and in Punjab for imposition of president’s rule in the state of Punjab, following the lapse in the security of Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his visit to the state.

    Prime Minister was to announce developmental schemes and address a party rally in Ferozepur in Punjab. He was to travel from Bathinda to Hussainiwala by a helicopter where he was to pay tribute to the three martyrs -Bhagat Singh, Rajguru and Sukhdev. But a bad weather forced him to make changes to his travel plan.
    It was decided that he would travel by road from Bathinda to Hussainiwala- a good two hours’ drive. Somewhere on the road some 20 miles shy of Hussainiwala his convoy had to stop because there were, as alleged, protesting farmers who had blocked the road.

    Prime Minister’s convey was held up there for about 20 minutes. And then the PM returned to Bathinda where he told a Punjab government official to convey his thanks to Punjab chief minister that he had come back alive to Bathinda.

    The Prime Minister’s remark generated all kinds of conspiracy theories. The central government blamed the Punjab government for the lapses and Punjab government defended its police officers, administration and itself by saying that the security of the Prime Minister is the responsibility of the SPG which cleared all plans of movement of the Prime Minister. However, since Punjab is going to elections in the next couple of months, the state is politically surcharged.

    The BJP which has lost ground in Punjab, after its break with SAD knows very well that it doesn’t have the kind of strength to win elections and therefore, it decided to go with Capt Amarinder Singh only to realize soon that Capt did not have enough sway in the State and that an alliance with his party was not going to get them the number of assembly seats they wanted.

    The Indian Panorama had pointed out a couple of months ago when the center had given BSF special powers and control over 50 kilometers of area of the state of Punjab along the Pakistan border that it was the beginning of an exercise to prevent elections in Punjab. Today, we hear a clamor for imposition of president’s rule. Unconfirmed reports say that when Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Shah went to President Kovind and requested him for imposing President’s rule, President did not oblige them. BJP leaders demanding President’s rule in Punjab say that because Punjab government is not able to secure law and order which is evident from the lapse in the security of the Prime Minister, the government has no right to remain in power.
    The fact is that BJP government is looking for a pretext to not hold elections in Punjab knowing full well that it has no chance of winning enough seats to be able to in any way form a government. Therefore, it is better that elections are not held. What the BJP wants is a number of Rajya Sabha members from any state because that is where they need people. They need people to be able to amend the Constitution to make India a theocratic state, a Hindu Rashtra. If opposition parties have their Raja Sabha members, that will weaken the strength of the BJP in the parliament.

    We are concerned over this scenario. It’s not going to help democracy in the country. It is not going to serve the interests of the people of India. It is not going to serve the interests of the people of Punjab, and it certainly will be a bad precedent if the BJP government at the center made the issue of lapse in the security of the Prime Minister a reason for imposition of President’s rule in Punjab.