Major flight disruption coming? Europe has just 6 weeks of ATF left amid summer travel rush

London (TIP): Europe is staring at an aviation crisis, with jet fuel supplies rapidly shrinking. If the US, Israel, and Iran war doesn’t end, and the tankers don’t pass smoothly through the Middle East, Europe might soon be short of fuel to operate flights. The International Energy Agency (IEA) chief warned on Thursday that Europe has jet fuel for just six weeks, as the aviation sector prepares for its summer travel rush. In an interview with the US-based news agency Associated Press (AP) on Thursday, the IEA’s Executive Director, Fatih Birol, issued a fresh warning saying, “The Strait of Hormuz blockade will result in the largest energy crisis we have ever faced.”
European airlines have warned of jet fuel shortages within weeks as a result of the Iran war, disrupting travel ahead of summer. According to news agency Reuters, Europe is more dependent on jet fuel imports, with some 75% from the Middle East, than on any other transport fuel.
According to a report in the New York Times, a European airline, Ryanair, said this week that its suppliers could guarantee it enough jet fuel only through most of May. The airline said fuel could be in short supply if ships laden with energy did not soon begin passing through the Strait of Hormuz. “If the Iran war finishes soon, then supply will not be disrupted,” the airline said.
The Strait of Hormuz was blocked by Iran after the US and Israel attacked it in February. After the peace talks failed in Pakistan on Sunday, the US has imposed its own blockade to cut off Iran’s exports through the Hormuz.
EUROPE’S MEASURES TO TACKLE LOOMING FUEL CRISIS
Europe remains the largest consumer of jet fuel transported via the Strait of Hormuz. According to Australia-based financial services firm Macquarie Group, shipments through the strategic waterway make up around 41% of Europe’s jet fuel imports.
The European Union (EU) is drafting plans to tackle a looming jet fuel supply crunch and maximise refinery output, officials told Reuters.
A draft proposal seen by Reuters said, “From next month, the European Commission will introduce EU-wide mapping of refining capacity for oil products and introduce measures to ensure that existing refining capacity is fully utilised and maintained.
The EU is also working on measures targeting jet fuel supply, but those are still in development, officials familiar with the proposals said. The Commission declined to comment on the draft plans, which are due to be published on April 22. Jet fuel supplies are highly unequal across Europe. Spain has eight refineries and is a net exporter of jet fuel, while imports cover more than 60% of British demand. European airlines have asked the EU to improve monitoring of jet fuel supplies and consider joint purchasing of kerosene.
SUMMER HOLIDAYS IN EUROPE TO BE AFFECTED
Summer is the peak and most profitable season for airlines in Europe. The demand for jet fuel will surely rise in the weeks ahead.
“As European markets approach the peak demand season, the loss of Middle East imports presents a severe logistical challenge,” the IEA said in a report, according to The New York Times.
Imports from Africa and the US are unlikely to fully make up for the crunch, while fuel handling consortia that feed into airports do not always keep long-term stocks, analysts said to Reuters, and many airports do not keep large stocks on hand. Some airports have warned of shortages within three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to fuel shipments.
According to Reuters, the IEA said this month that many European refiners are already operating at maximum capacity for jet fuel production.
For now, Europe’s aviation sector remains on edge—caught between dwindling reserves and an uncertain geopolitical landscape. If the Iran war doesn’t end in the next few weeks, then it will spiral into widespread disruption of the aviation sector in Europe.