London (TIP): WTI was trading near $89.50 on Thursday, down 0.86%, as the market pared back after a rally tied to Middle East tensions. Negotiations between the US and Iran over a permanent peace agreement were reported to be continuing despite recent strikes, with messaging via Qatar framed as suggesting the attacks were not a return to full-scale war. Prices eased as the perceived near-term threat to global supply moderated, even as Donald Trump warned the US would hit Iran “very hard” overnight and floated taking control of Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal. Kharg Island previously handled roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports before the conflict.
Supply-and-demand signals in the US remained tight. The EIA said commercial crude inventories fell by 7.2M barrels last week, compared with 4M expected, extending a run of stockpile declines. Inflation data also stayed firm, with PPI up 6.5% YoY in August and CPI at 4.2% YoY. Markets are pricing the Fed to hold rates at next week’s meeting, while the possibility of another hike later this year remains on the table if energy-led price pressures persist.
We’re seeing West Texas Intermediate pull back to around $85 a barrel after a strong run-up. The recent rally was fueled by renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, but the possibility of diplomatic back-channels is causing some profit-taking. This uncertainty creates a challenging environment ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting.
While recent naval incidents in the Strait of Hormuz have put a floor under prices, reports of indirect talks via Omani officials suggest a diplomatic off-ramp is still being explored. The market is weighing the risk of a major disruption to the roughly 20 million barrels of oil that pass through the strait daily against the potential for a sudden de-escalation. We believe this geopolitical premium is fragile and could evaporate quickly on positive news.
On the demand side, the US market remains tight. The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed a commercial crude inventory draw of 3.7 million barrels, surprising analysts who had forecast a smaller decline. This continues a trend of shrinking stockpiles, indicating that physical demand is robust despite higher prices.
We are also closely watching the macroeconomic picture, as energy prices are feeding into broader inflation. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for May came in at 3.5%, a slight uptick that complicates the Federal Reserve’s path forward. This persistent inflation increases the odds that the Fed will signal a “higher for longer” stance at its meeting later this month.
Given these conflicting signals, we are advising a focus on options strategies to manage the elevated volatility. Buying straddles or strangles could be an effective way to position for a large price move in either direction, whether from a military escalation or a surprise diplomatic breakthrough. For those with a directional bias, using call or put spreads can help define risk in what is becoming an increasingly unpredictable market.
Be the first to comment