Oil prices fall as Trump rules out Iran attack before US midterm elections

NEW York (TIP): Crude oil prices fell on Friday, Oct 9, as concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East eased after US President Donald Trump said Washington would not attack Iran before next month’s midterm elections, while pointing to progress in talks aimed at ending the conflict.
Brent crude futures declined 72 cents, or 0.7%, to $103.53 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 52 cents, or 0.6%, to $90.97 by 7.50 am IST, according to market data. Reuters reported that the easing in prices followed Trump’s remarks about ongoing discussions with Tehran.
Despite Friday’s decline, Brent remained on course for a weekly gain after settling around 4% higher on Thursday, when increased attacks on shipping carrying crude from the Middle East heightened concerns about supply disruptions. WTI, meanwhile, was headed for a slight weekly decline, with the market also factoring in supply interruptions caused by a hurricane approaching the US Gulf Coast.
Trump said on Thursday that Washington was engaged in “productive discussions” with Iran and that the US would not launch an attack before the November 3 midterm congressional elections. His remarks helped ease immediate fears of military escalation, although uncertainty over the negotiations and the broader security situation continued to keep traders cautious.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a major concern for energy markets. Before the conflict, the strategic waterway carried shipments equivalent to about one-fifth of global oil and fuel supplies. Any prolonged disruption to traffic through the strait could tighten supplies and put upward pressure on prices.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported on Thursday that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was reviewing the US response to a proposal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. The outcome of the discussions could prove important for restoring shipping flows and reducing uncertainty in global energy markets.
Meanwhile, Washington continued to exert economic pressure on Tehran. The US announced fresh sanctions targeting individuals, networks and 17 vessels involved in transporting Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and petrochemicals, adding another layer of uncertainty to the supply outlook.
Oil markets are also contending with the impact of Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf of Mexico. US offshore producers had shut in about 1.3 million barrels per day of oil production, equivalent to 62.9% of current output, as of Thursday, according to figures cited in the Reuters report.
With geopolitical tensions, shipping risks and weather-related disruptions affecting supplies, traders are expected to remain sensitive to developments in US-Iran negotiations and changes in crude production and transportation. Friday’s decline offered some relief, but the outlook for oil prices remained uncertain.