Tag: AIADMK

CHENNAI (TIP): AIADMK general secretary J Jayalalithaa’s widely expected swearing-in as chief minister has reportedly been delayed over a possible appeal by Karnataka against her acquittal in a corruption case on May 11 and a few other reasons.

Senior AIADMK leaders said there were no hurdles within the party for her return as CM. “The governor has greeted Amma on her victory which means he will not hesitate to swear her in. But Amma is not in a hurry as we already have a government led by O Panneerselvam in place,” said a senior leader.

Even four days after the Karnataka high court’s favourable verdict, there is no official announcement about the convening of the meeting to elect Jayalalithaa as the legislature party leader and the subsequent swearing-in of a new cabinet under her leadership.

“We have not yet received any communication from our leadership on the MLAs’ meeting. We are waiting in Chennai with anticipation,” an AIADMK MLA from western Tamil Nadu said. Sources in the governor’s office also said there was no official communication from the ruling party regarding the swearing-in ceremony of Jayalalithaa.

A senior minister who visited Jayalalithaa’s Poes Garden residence on Wednesday said she only spoke to a selected group of ministers over intercom very briefly. Significantly, a Jaya TV unit which was deployed there returned without taking any visuals. Though the state secretariat has been hurriedly preparing for Jayalalithaa’s return, senior officials are clueless about the possible day.

Meanwhile, opposition parties have started raising questions on her non-appearance in public. “It is a mystery that even so many days after the Karnataka high court delivered its verdict in the wealth case, Jayalalithaa has not showed up in public. Who is going to explain the mystery behind her non-appearance?” TNCC president EVKS Elangovan asked in a statement. “AIADMK celebrations lasted only for a few hours and now the cadres are stranded without any clue,” he said.

NEW DELHI (TIP):  The government agreed to convene an all-party meeting to discuss its proposal to give NRIs the right to exercise their franchise by e-postal ballots or through proxy voting.

Law Minister DV Sadananda Gowda accepted the demand of opposition parties in the Rajya Sabha that their views should be taken into consideration while enacting legislation to grant voting rights to NRIs and domestic migrant labor.

Replying to a calling attention motion moved by Leader of Opposition Ghulam Nabi Azad, the Law Minister made it clear that the government was acting on the Election Commission report regarding voting rights of over one crore NRIs and not as directed by the Supreme Court.
During the debate, Opposition members charged the government with taking up the matter against the backdrop of the Supreme Court’s directions, with Leader of Opposition Ghulam Nabi Azad saying they were not opposed to voting rights for NRIs but the way the Government has moved the proposal without discussing it with the political parties.

The Minister said the report had recommended the options of the e-postal ballot system and proxy voting and the government had submitted before the Supreme Court accepting the recommendations.

To ensure that secrecy and methodology is maintained, Gowda said “e-postal and postal ballot voting methodologies are being worked out for the voting rights of the NRIs”.

However, he agreed for an all-party meeting as demanded by several opposition parties including AIADMK, DMK, BJD, CPI, SP and JD-U.

NEW DELHI (TIP): In an effort to make best use of the “golden opportunity” that the party has, with a majority government at the Centre to showcase, BJP chief Amit Shah has been holding meetings with leaders of seven states and Union Territories where the saffron party still has a long way to go in improving its support base.

As the membership drive for the party hit its peak – 8 crore and 7 lakh as of Thursday — Shah held statewise meetings with leaders of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Odisha over the last couple of days and will be interacting with state unit leaders from Telangana and Andhra Pradesh by the week end, to push the party’s prospects in these states.

With assembly elections coming up in Kerala and West Bengal next year, the central BJP leadership has asked the respective state units to make best use of the situation created by the downslide in electoral fortunes of Congress and Left parties in these two states. In both the states the focus is to concentrate on the local body elections as a precursor to the assembly polls.

With the 10-month-old BJP government at the Centre, the party will highlight its governance record to win favour with the people and underline the lack of development and corruption issues in the states. Union ministers have been assigned to help central leaders incharge of states, to boost the prospects of the party in these regions.

In both Kerala and Bengal, Shah has asked the state unit to identify candidates for the polls that are coming up at all levels and even look at candidates from outside the party. The membership drive in Kerala is inching towards the target of 25 lakh with 21 lakh having already signed up.

However, in Tamil Nadu where the political space is taken up by DMK and AIADMK, BJP has decided to prepare for a situation where they may have to go it alone. The membership drive in the state has not yet hit a high, with the target being 60 lakh and so far the numbers having just crossed 21 lakh.

Typically, state leaders have also been asked to identify local issues in the states, which the BJP wants to address so as to connect with people there. Shah has completed his tour of 23 states so far and is hoping to complete all the states by April 30, by when he would have had feedbacks from the district level leaders in all the states. The statewise strategy will be finalised only after this exercise is over.

NEW DELHI (TIP): The government is working to get the contentious land acquisition bill passed in Lok Sabha next week, but is increasingly wary that defiant opponents and procedural road blocks may come in the way of its objective to turn it into full-scale law.

On a day when its representatives held what sources called successful talks with allies, parliamentary affairs minister M Venkaiah Naidu asserted that “there is no question of going back” on any of the ordinances. The government’s resolve came off clearly also through finance minister Arun Jaitley’s spirited rebuttal of the criticism that the land acquisition legislation was pro-corporate and anti-farmer.

Besides allies, ministers were deputed to talk to other parties — AIADMK, DMK, BSP, TRS and YSR Congress — who are not deemed to be staunchly hostile to the legislation and can be expected, in government’s reckoning, to be flexible during the head count.

Besides the land acquisition bill, the government also proposes to bring in bills to replace ordinances on coal block allocation, mines and minerals, insurance, citizenship and for legalizing e-rickshaws.

Renewed efforts for gathering numbers have been necessitated because of the rule that a joint sitting for resolving a legislative stalemate, a situation where a bill passed by one House gets stuck in the other, can be convened only six months after it has been approved by one House and sent to the other. In fact, 180 days can in reality stretch close to one year or even more because only working days of Parliament are counted for the purpose.

The rule deepens the bind government finds itself in. While opponents have dug in their heels demanding radical recast of the legislation, BJP leadership is convinced that giving in on the core issue of exempting acquisitions from the requirement of consent of 70% of land holders and social impact assessment will defeat the very purpose of the legislation, besides rendering the government vulnerable to more arm-twisting.

The predicament has prompted the outreach to those who are seen as “issue-agnostics”, and can help the government get around the number handicap in Rajya Sabha. Sources said the government is ready to make concessions provided they don’t come in the way of the motive — speedy acquisition of land in exchange for fair and adequate compensation.

A breakthrough has so far eluded government managers, putting a question mark on the fate of the ordinance on land acquisition which will lapse on April 5 if not passed by the two Houses. While it can be re-promulgated, the government will have to wait till May 8 when the budget session ends to do so.

The Supreme Court had ruled that measures taken on the strength of the ordinances will not lose legal validity even after the legislation lapses, but that may not assure investors looking for land to set up projects and may not give government political courage to start acquisitions.

NEW DELHI (TIP): The Supreme Court ruled on February 5 that a lawmaker’s election could be cancelled if he or she suppressed information about a criminal record, in what experts see as a landmark judgement towards eradication of criminalisation of politics. The verdict comes barely two days before the Delhi assembly elections in which the BJP and Aam Aadmi Party are locked in a tight contest.

 

“A voter is entitled to have an informed choice,” a bench headed by Justice Dipak Misra said. “No candidate is entitled to destroy the sacredness of election by indulging in undue influence.”

 

The apex court that has passed a series of verdicts on electoral reforms since July 2013 held that such suppression of information would amount to corrupt practice under Section 100(1)(b) of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 – a ground for setting aside an election.

 

Declaring “purity of election” as a “categorical imperative”, the bench noted that this was needed to end criminalisation of politics and corruption in public life.

 

“A voter who is not satisfied with any of the candidates…can opt not to vote for any candidate,” the court said.

 

The Supreme Court ruled in 2013 that elected lawmakers would stand disqualified if convicted by a court and sentenced to two years of imprisonment or more.

 

AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa stepped down as chief minister of Tamil Nadu in September last year in line with that order after she was found guilty in a corruption case. She also cannot contest elections for 10 years as part of the ruling.

 

The verdict came on an appeal filed by one Krishnamoorthy who was elected president of a panchayat in Tamil Nadu’s Coimbatore district in October 2006.

 

The poll tribunal declared his election null and void, holding that he could not have contested as his nomination papers deserved to be rejected. The Madras high court agreed with the tribunal’s verdict.

 

Upholding the HC verdict, the Supreme Court said, “A voter has a fundamental right to know about the candidates contesting the elections as that is essential and a necessary concomitant for a free and fair election.”

 

The candidate suppressed information about certain criminal cases, including those relating to embezzlement, were not disclosed by him at the time of filing of his nomination papers.

 

“Concealment or suppression of this nature deprives the voters to make an informed and advised choice as a consequence of which it would come within the compartment of direct or indirect interference or attempt to interfere with the free exercise of the right to vote by the electorate, on the part of the candidate,” the bench said.

 

“As the candidate has the special knowledge of the pending cases where cognizance has been taken or charges have been framed and there is a non-disclosure on his part, it would amount to undue influence and, therefore, the election is to be declared null and void by the Election Tribunal under Section 100(1)(b) of the 1951 Act.”

 

The court said, “The requirement of a disclosure, especially the criminal antecedents, enables a voter  to have an informed and instructed choice. If a voter is denied of the acquaintance to the information and deprived of the condition to be apprised of the entire gamut of criminal antecedents relating to heinous or serious offences or offence of corruption or moral turpitude, the exercise of electoral right would not be an advised one. He will be exercising his franchisee with the misinformed mind. That apart, his fundamental right to know also gets nullified.”

NEW DELHI (TIP): The Supreme Court on December 18extended by four months the bail of former Tamil Naduchief minister J Jayalalithaa in a disproportionate assetscase and asked the chief justice of Karnataka high courtto constitute a special bench to decide her pleaexpeditiously within three months.A bench headed by Chief Justice H L Dattu ordered thatthe hearing in the high court on the appeal filed by theAIADMK chief challenging her conviction and sentence inthe case, be conducted on a day-to-day basis.”Keeping in view the facts of the case, we request thechief justice of Karnataka high court to constitute aspecial bench for hearing of appeal on day-to-day basis.The hearing should be completed within three months,”the bench, also comprising Justice A K Sikri, said.”The bail granted by this court on October 17 isextended by another four months, that is, till April 18,2015,” the bench said.It also asked senior advocate KTS Tulsi, appearing forJayalalithaa, who was awarded four years jail term alongwith a fine of Rs 100 crore in the DA case, to provide acopy of documents of the case to BJP leader SubramanianSwamy.Swamy, during the brief hearing, raised the issue of lawand order in Tamil Nadu, saying the posters of the slainLTTE chief Prabhakaran are being pasted across the state.”We gave you (Swamy) the liberty that if there isanything against you, you just mention that before us. Wewill take a call,” the bench said.On October 17, the apex court had granted conditionalbail to Jayalalithaa, who was sent to jail by a trial court onSeptember 27, saying that hearing on her appeal againstconviction in high court should be completed in fivemonths from now.The apex court, which had also granted bail to theAIADMK chief’s close aide Sasikala and two of herrelatives, had refused to dispose of the bail plea whileposting the case for hearing on December 18.The 66-year-old politician, who had moved the SupremeCourt for bail on October 9 after she was denied bail bythe Karnataka high court, had submitted that she hadbeen sentenced to only four years jail in the case and shewas also suffering from various ailments, as grounds forher immediate relief.The special court had held Jayalalithaa and three othersguilty of corruption. The court had also slapped a fine ofRs 100 crore on the AIADMK chief and Rs 10 crore fine oneach of the three other convicts.

Urges apex court to grant urgent hearing after High Court had refused her earlier bail plea

NEW DELHI (TIP): Former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalitha, denied bail by Karnataka High Court following her conviction and four year sentence in a graft case, moved the Supreme Court for bail on October 9.

The AIADMK chief, who is behind bars for the last 12 days, challenged the High Court order which refused her bail plea. She urged the apex court to grant an urgent hearing on her plea on Saturday during the mentioning hour. Jayalalitha said she has been sentenced only for four years and is also suffering from various ailments as grounds for her immediate relief.

She said as chief minister she did not misuse her powers in this case.

She also cited grounds of being a senior citizen and a woman in a bid to get out of jail.

The 66-year-old veteran politician was denied bail by the High Court on October 7 despite the Special Public Prosecutor not objecting to grant of conditional bail.

In her petition seeking immediate bail, Jayalalitha maintained that the charge of amassing wealth during 1991-96 when she was chief minister for the first time was false and that she had acquired property through legal means. She also contended the trial court had overlooked several judgements and not considered the binding nature of various income tax orders and decisions of the Income Tax Appellate Tribunal, which had accepted the income and the level of expenditure pleaded by her. There “are no grounds” to give bail to Jayalalitha. Corruption amounts to “violation of human rights” and leads to economic imbalance, the High Court judge had said. The HC also rejected bail pleas of Jayalalitha’s close aide Sasikala and her relatives V N Sudhakaran, disowned foster-son of the former chief minister, and Ilavarasi, who have also been sentenced to four years jail in the 18-year-old case.

BANGALORE (TIP): Holding that it was AIADMK supremo Jayalalithaa who had paid for the arrangements for the lavish marriage of her now estranged foster son V N Sudhakaran, the special court in the disproportionate assets case against her pegged the expenses incurred by her at Rs three crore.

Sudhakaran’s marriage, dubbed as “mother of all weddings” was held in 1995 when Jayalalithaa was Chief Minister and had raised a huge controversy, inviting public criticism for ostentation, protests and petitions to court.

“It is established in evidence that huge amount was spent towards the printing of invitation, publication of thanks in the dailies, ‘tamboolam’ and valuable presents given to the guests, all of which would certainly entail an expense of more than Rs three crores even by modest and conservative estimation,” Special Judge John Michael D’ Cunha said.

“Taking into consideration all the above facts and circumstances, a sum of Rs three crores is taken as the expenses incurred by A-1 (Jayalalithaa) towards arrangement for the marriage of A-3 (Sudhakaran),” he said rejecting their contention that the expenses were met by the bride’s family.

The judge noted that oral and documentary evidence produced by the accused in support of their defence is “replete with the inconsistencies and irreconcilable contradictions”.

The evidence indicates that the arrangements were sponsored by Jayalalithaa and at her instance all the arrangements were made and even the payment was made by her, he said.

The prosecution had come up with the case that over Rs six crore was spent for the marriage.

The judge also said that witnesses have clearly stated that VIPs were invited and had attended the marriage and accommodation was arranged for them in hotels, the payment of which was made by Jayalalithaa.

“All these circumstances falsify the contention of the accused that the marriage expenses were met by the family of the bride,” he said.

The prosecution had come up with the case that a sum of Rs.6,45,04,222 was spent for the marriage, out of which, Rs 5,21,23,532 were spent for putting up pandals.Though the said amount looks exorbitant, but having regard to the accommodation provided to more than 40,000 to 50,000 people at two places and special arrangements made for the stage and decoration, the said amount does not appear to be unreasonable, the judge said.

NEW DELHI (TIP):
Giving in to opposition pressure, the government on August 14 referred the controversial Insurance Bill to the select committee of Rajya Sabha. The House adopted a motion in this regard after finance minister Arun Jaitley moved it while informing members that the panel has been asked to look into the Bill and submit its report on the last day of the first week of the next session. The Committee will have Chandan Mitra, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi and Jagat Prakash Nadda (all BJP), Anand Sharma, BK Hariprasad and JD Seelam (all Cong), Satish Chandra Misra (BSP), KC Tyagi (JD-U), Derek O’Brien (TMC), V Maitreyan (AIADMK), Naresh Gujral (SAD), Ram Gopal Yadav (SP), Kalpataru Das (BJD), P Rajiv (CPIM) and Rajiv Chandrasekhar (Ind) as its members.

The government had to buckle under the opposition pressure after it failed to convince an adamant opposition to get its support for the first major economic reform initiative of the new government. Cutting across party lines, major opposition parties had joined hands on the issue demanding that the Bill be sent to the select committee. The bill, which proposes to hike FDI limit in insurance sector to 49 per cent, was caught in logjam with the Congress-led opposition insisting that certain new provisions incorporated in the bill required a fresh look and expert consideration.

Though government was confident of getting the bill passed in Lok Sabha, it was wary of its passage in the Rajya Sabha, where the ruling NDA does not enjoy majority. Though government had earlier listed the bill in Rajya Sabha, it was deferred and, strategically, not listed later as it continued consultations with various parties for support. With a view to gaining support, the government has made it clear that it is open to amendments in the bill. Congress, which had supported a hike in the FDI cap when it was in power, wanted the bill to be referred to a Select Committee for threadbare examination of the issue since the government has brought some amendments.

NEW DELHI (TIP):
AIADMK leader Muniswamy Thambidurai was on August 13 unanimously elected Deputy Speaker of the Lok Sabha, a post he had held 29 years ago as a first-term member. Life also came a full circle for the Congress which in 1985 had a brute majority of over 400 members in the 543- member Lok Sabha and had denied the post of deputy speaker to the single largest opposition party – TDP. On Wednesday, the 329-member NDA, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, denied the key post to the Congress, which is the largest party in opposition with 44 members.

BJD leader Bhratruhari Mahtab did not miss out the opportunity to cite this coincidence. “Things change, yet they do not change. In 1985, the ruling party had 400 plus members and the deputy speaker’s post had gone to the second largest party in the Opposition, as has happened now,” he said. The AIADMK, with 37 MPs, is the third largest party in the Lok Sabha.

The 67- year-old Thambidurai’s skills of handling the Lok Sabha members were put to test on Wednesday evening when he was in the chair as the House discussed measures to tackle incidents of communal violence in the country. Home Minister Rajnath Singh moved the motion to elect Thambidurai as Deputy Speaker and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj seconded him.

CHENNAI (TIP): Blazing a trail, the ruling AIADMK scored an emphatic victory in the Lok Sabha election in Tamil Nadu, winning 37 of the 39 seats on its own. The sterling performance has put the party, led by Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, on course to becoming the third largest in the Lok Sabha. While the AIADMK’s handsome wins were spread across all regions in a predominantly five-cornered contest in the State, the major opposition party Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and its allies have drawn a blank.

The resounding numbers showed that the ruling party did not suffer any anti-incumbency reverses, unlike the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance at the Centre. The DMK’s calculations to garner the votes of minorities and Dalits by roping in two Muslim outfits and the two main Dalit parties in the State to offset the breakup of the partnership with the Congress went awry. The votes polled by the Congress in this election were not adequate to make any difference even if it had been part of a DMK-led alliance.

The only solace for the BJP was the victory of its State president, Pon. Radhakrishnan, in the Kanyakumari constituency in the south, where votes were polarised on religious lines. The BJP’s “lotus” symbol was in the race in nine constituencies, with three of its smaller allies also allotted the symbol.In north Tamil Nadu, the attempted mobilisation of the Vanniyars seems to have benefited only the former Union Minister and PMK candidate, Anbumani Ramadoss, who won from Dharmapuri.

Further, neither the MDMK, headed by Vaiko, nor the DMDK could win a single seat despite the mega-alliance knitted by the BJP. Vaiko lost in Virudhunagar, while L.K. Sudhish, . Vijayakanth’s brother-in-law, came third in the Salem constituency. The AIADMK, despite its brilliant performance, is unlikely to play a crucial role as the BJP has won a majority on its own. In a statement here, Jayalalithaa said her appeal to the people of Tamil Nadu to strengthen her hands was not out of any selfish motives but to get justice for the people of the State. She termed her party’s massive victory “historic, and unparalleled.”

KOLKATA (TIP):West Bengal’s ruling Trinamool Congress put up a spectacular show, sweeping the Lok Sabha polls in the state to emerge as the fourth-largest party in the new Lok Sabha, while the BJP signalled its rise as a force by eating into the vote share of the erstwhile rulers Left Front which was nearly wiped out. The Congress, however, put up a stubborn fight to largely hold on to its pockets of strength in the state.

Of the state’s 42 seats, the Trinamool picked up 34, recording its best performance as it nearly doubled its 19 seat tally of 2009. However, five years back, the Trinamool had an alliance with the Congress, and this time it fought the polls alone. The Trinamool snatched 14 seats from the Left Front, and also unseated the only Socialist Unity Centre of India-Communist (SUCI-C) MP.

The Trinamool’s strength in the Lok Sabha would be after the Bharatiya Janata Party, Congress and the AIADMK. The Congress won four seats, while the BJP and the Left front spearhead Communist Party of India-Marxist collected two each. In the previous Lok Sabha polls in 2009, the then Trinamool-Congress-SUCIC alliance had won 26 seats. The Congress got six seats, while the SUCI-C won in one constituency. The Left Front had got 15 seats, with the CPI-M securing nine and other partners – the Communist Party of India, the Revolutionary Socialist Party, and the Forward Bloc – the remaining.

For the Left, the 2014 general elections witnessed its worst show in the state after Independence, and for the Left Front, the most pathetic performance since its formation in 1977. Not only did its vote share drop to 29.3 percent from 43.3 percent in 2009, but it even finished third in half a dozen seats. The BJP’s best performance in Bengal so far was in 1999, when it bagged two seats – but in alliance with the Trinamool.

This time, BJP had fought on its own and recorded a higher voting percentage of over 17 percent, bettering the 12 percent vote share it obtained in 1991. Bollywood singer and BJP candidate Babul Supriyo came up with a surprise win in Asansol while his party colleague S.S. Ahluwalia humbled former Indian soccer captain Bhaichung Bhutia of Trinamool in Darjeeling. In a big surprise, BJP Kolkata South candidate Tathagata Roy got a lead in the Bhowanipore assembly segment, represented by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in the assembly. The BJP finished second in both Kolkata North and Kolkata South.

NEW DELHI (TIP): The Congress and UPA are facing decimation in a wide swathe of states from Delhi and Rajasthan in the north to Bihar and Jharkhand in the east, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in the centre, Maharashtra in the west and Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka in the south.

In sharp contrast, the BJP and its allies are riding high in almost all these states, with Tamil Nadu being an exceptional case of neither major alliance doing well, according to an opinion poll done for a TV channel. The poll done by Hansa Research for NDTV and released on Thursday estimated that the BJP would win 21 of 25 seats in Rajasthan, 25 of 29 seats in MP, eight of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh, 10 of 14 seats in Jharkhand, 16 of 28 seats in Karnataka and four of seven in Delhi.

Thus, in these six states combined, the party would bag 84 out of 114 seats on its own. The BJP with its allies would win 21 of Bihar’s 40 seats, 36 of Maharashtra’s 48, 16 of AP’s 42 and three of Tamil Nadu’s 39, leading to a total of 76 out of 169 seats in these four states.

As against this, the poll predicts that the Congress will win just 29 seats in AP, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi put together, while the party and its allies will win 25 seats in Bihar, Jharkhand and Maharashtra. In short, the overall tally in all of these states put together would be 160 for the NDA and a mere 54 for the UPA. In Tamil Nadu, the poll predicts that the AIADMK will win 25 seats, the DMK alliance 11 seats and the BJP alliance three seats, leaving the Congress facing a blank slate.

In Andhra Pradesh, there would be two distinctly different battles – mainly between the TDP-BJP and the YSR Congress in Seemandhra and between the Congress and TRS in Telengana. Put together, the TDP alliance is estimated to win 16 seats, the YSR Congress 10, the Congress eight and TRS seven. In Maharashtra, the NDA will win 36 seats and the UPA just 10, the poll predicted. In Bihar, the NDA gets 21, the UPA 11 and the ruling JD(U) a mere six. In Delhi, AAP will win two seats and Congress one, the remaining four going to BJP, the poll predicted.

NEW DELHI (TIP): The BJP and NDA will gain handsomely across several states in the north, west, east and south of India, while the Congress and UPA will face major losses in these states, according to an opinion poll done for a TV channel. NDTV released the findings of its poll, conducted by Hansa Research, from 12 states accounting for a total of 319 seats on March 13.

It predicted that the NDA would win 166 seats, gaining 61 seats in these states in the 2014 polls. In contrast, the UPA will see its tally halved from 104 to 52. While most of the findings are in line with predictions by other polls, what could come as a rude shock for the Congress is the estimate that even in Karnataka, where the party was hoping to make some gains vis-a-vis 2009, it is the BJP that will gain a seat.

The states for which the findings were released on Thursday were Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Haryana and Delhi. The BJP and NDA, according to the polls, would make the biggest gains in Rajasthan, where the party would win 19 seats and Congress a mere five, in a near-complete reversal of the 2009 position. In Maharashtra too, the Sena- BJP alliance is set to win 33 of the state’s 48 seats, gaining 13, while the Congress- NCP combine UPA would win just 12, a loss of 13. In Bihar, the BJP-LJP alliance would pick up 23 of the state’s 40 seats and the RJD-Congress combine 11, leaving the ruling JD(U) picking up the crumbs, according to the poll.

The BJP or NDA would make relatively more modest gains in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Delhi and Bihar, while the UPA would make some small gains in Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, the poll predicted. In West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, the battle predictably is likely to remain between parties that are part of neither of the two big coalitions. In West Bengal, the poll suggested that the Trinamool Congress would win 32 seats, a gain of 13 from 2009, and the Left 9 (a loss of six), leaving just one seat for the Congress, which had won 6 last time. In Tamil Nadu, AIADMK was predicted to win 27 seats, up 18 from 2009, and the DMK 10, down eight, leaving just two seats for “others” to win. In Delhi, the poll predicted that AAP would win four seats, BJP two and Congress one.

NEW DELHI (TIP):
Smarting under Jayalalithaa’s snub over the request for two seats each to CPI and CPM, the top Left leaders on Thursday attributed it to the Tamil Nadu chief minister’s confidence that the AIADMK would sweep the polls in a four-cornered contest. “All along, Tamil Nadu had twocornered fight between DMK and AIADMK. But for the first time there is a possibility of DMK, AIADMK, Congress and BJP fighting as separate groups. She has done her calculation and is confident that opposition votes will split very badly. Tamil Nadu has never witnessed election like this,” said a top left leader who didn’t want to be named. He said indication that the alliance will fall apart had come few days back when she decided to offer one seat each to CPM and CPI.

“We would have settled for two seats each but she was unwilling,” he said. He though dismissed speculation that by dumping the Left, Jayalalithaa has opened window for BJP. “BJP’s alliance with Vijayakanth’s party is almost certain. She wants the opposition vote to get as fragmented as possible,” said a senior CPI leader said adding that the post-poll scenario couldn’t be predicted now. Jayalalithaa’s reported order to the party cadre to keep the attack confined to Congress and go soft on BJP during the campaign had dropped hints about her plans to change tack after having shared the stage with the Left and other leaders for a Third Front. The Left now says it will not be part of any alliance but rather become the fifth political formation in Tamil Nadu.

“After having campaigned so much against DMK’s corruption, we cannot join them or any other alliance,” said the Left leader. CPM and CPI leaders have now decided to contest at least 10 to 12 seats in the state. Both the parties won one seat each in Tamil Nadu in 2009. While CPM won Coimbatore, CPI got Tenkasi. Without alliance with either of the big two – DMK and AIADMK – it is unlikely that Left will repeat its 2009 performance. The Left has roughly 6-7% vote with few areas of dominance.

NEW DELHI (TIP): The BJP could reach its highest tally ever and the Congress its lowest point, giving the NDA the best chance of forming the government after the Lok Sabha polls, though well short of a majority. That’s the big picture emerging from the Times Now-CVoter national projection poll released on February 13. The poll projected that the BJP would win 202 seats if the elections were held now and its allies another 25, giving the NDA 227 seats in the 543-member LS.

The Congress, in sharp contrast, would sink to just 89 and even with 12 seats from its allies the UPA would barely cross the 100 mark, it predicted. With “others” likely to win 215 seats and many of them having joined hands with the BJP in the past, that would be very good news for those rooting for Narendra Modi as prime minister. In terms of vote shares, the NDA is estimated to win 36%, the UPA 22% and others 42%. AAP, whose performance in its first LS polls will be closely watched, is projected to win a total of seven seats, four of them from outside Delhi.

It’s vote share, the poll suggests would be about 8%, which would be larger than the vote share of any party other than the Congress or BJP in any recent LS election. Among the parties currently not aligned to either the Congress or the BJP parties, the AIADMK and the Left – which are in an alliance — are projected to win 27 seats each, the Trinamool Congress 24, the BSP 21 and SP 20. The decline in the Congress tally from 206 in 2009 to just 89 in the latest poll is a result of a pan-India collapse, with few exceptions. In Andhra Pradesh, the state that gave the Congress its biggest chunk of MPs (33) last time, the party is projected to win a mere six seats.

Similarly, Uttar Pradesh could see just four Congress MPs against 21 last time and Rajasthan four against 20. States that are seen as bucking this trend are Karnataka – 14 against six – Chhattisgarh (three against one) and Orissa (seven against six). In contrast, the BJP’s tally is seen to be rising in virtually all the states where it is a serious contender barring the three exceptions already mentioned. The saffron party’s biggest gains are projected to come from Uttar Pradesh – 34 against 10 – Rajasthan (21 against four) and Bihar (21 against 12).

Combined with more modest gains in other states, including those where it did well even last time, these are expected to raise the BJP’s tally by 86 seats from the 116 it won in 2009. Among the others, significant gainers are the AIADMK, up from nine to 27; YSR Congress, from nil to 13; RJD, from four to 12; and TRS, from two to 10. The biggest losers, the poll predicts, are likely to be the JD(U), down from 20 to just five; DMK, from 18 to five; and NCP, from nine to five. AAP’s seven seats, according to the poll, will include three from Delhi and one each from Haryana, Maharashtra, Karnataka and the union territories.

FOLLOWING IS THE STATE-WISE PREDICTION FOR THE LOK SABHA ELECTIONS
ANDHRA PRADESH (42): Cong-6, BJP- 2, TDP-10, TRS-10, YSR-13, OTH- 1
ARUNACHAL PRADESH (2): Cong-1, BJP-1
ASSAM (14): Cong- 7, BJP-5, AUDP- 1, AGP- 0, BPF- 1, OTH-0
BIHAR (40): Cong- 1, BJP-21, JD(U)- 5, RJD- 12, LJP- 1, OTH- 0
CHHATISGARH (11): Cong- 3, BJP- 8, OTH- 0
DELHI (7): Cong- 0, BJP- 4, AAP- 3, OTH-0 Goa (2); Cong- 1, BJP- 1, OTH- 0
GUJARAT (26): Cong- 4, BJP- 22, OTH-0
HARYANA (10): Cong- 1, BJP, 6, INLD- 1, AAP- 1, HJC- 1, OTH-O
HIMACHAL PRADESH (4): Cong- 1, BJP- 3, OTH-0
JAMMU AND KASHMIR (6): Cong- 1, BJP- 2, NC-1, PDP-2, OTH-0
JHARKHAND (14): Cong- 1, BJP- 8, JMM-2, JVM- 2, OTH- 0
KARNATAKA (28): Cong- 14, BJP- 11, JD(S)- 2, AAP- 1, OTH-0
KERALA (20): Cong- 7, BJP- 1, LEFT- 9, IUMC- 2, KC (M)- 1, OTH-0
MADHYA PRADESH (29): Cong-5, BJP- 24, BSP- 0, OTH-0
MAHARASTRA (48): Cong-8, BJP- 15, NCP- 5, SS- 15, MNS-1, OTH-4
MANIPUR (2): Cong-1, BJP-1
MEGHALAYA (2): Cong- 1, NCP- 0 , NPP- 1, OTH-0
MIZORAM (1): Cong- 1, OTH-0
NAGALAND (1): Cong- 0, NPF- 1, OTH-0
ODISHA (21): Cong- 7, BJP- 2, BJD- 12, CPI- 0, OTH-0
PUNJAB (13): Cong- 6, BJP-2, SAD- 5, OTH-0
RAJASTHAN (25): Cong-4, BJP- 21, OTH-0
SIKKIM (1): Cong- 0, SDF- 1, OTH-0
TAMIL NADU (39): Cong-1, DMK- 5, AIADMK- 27, LEFT-2, MDMK- 1, OTH-0
TRIPURA (2): Cong- 0, CPI (M)- 2, OTH-0
UTTAR PRADESH (80): Cong- 4, BJP- 34, SP- 20, BSP- 21, RLD- 1, OTH-0
UTTARAKHAND (5): Cong-0, BJP-5
WEST BENGAL (42): Cong- 2, BJP- 1, TMC- 24, LEFT- 14, SUCI-0, OTH-1

NEW DELHI (TIP): In a new partnership, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee might be endorsed by anticorruption crusader Anna Hazare as a likely prime ministerial candidate or leader of a non-Congress, non-BJP front.

Hazare’s move is seen as a response to Trinamool Congress agreeing to support his economic agenda that the Maharashtra-based leader had written about in a letter to the Bengal CM. Hazare had highlighted a 17-point agenda that includes village centric social and economic initiatives and proposals like more vocational education and tough laws against corruption.

In response, Trinamool leader Mukul Roy wrote to Hazare stating that many issues relating to village-based industry, transparency in land acquisition and schemes for minorities had already been taken up by Mamata. But Roy was fulsome in his praise of Hazare’s efforts to clean up public life and sought the ant-corruption crusader’s guidance in combatin g graft in public life.

“We would like to congratulate you on your relentless efforts to bring utmost transparency in public life which our leader Mamata Banerjee had always believed in,” he said. Trinamool’s endorsement of Hazare’s agenda and his guidance is expected to see the Gandhian return the compliment by Mamata as a candidate who fits the bill as India’s future leader.

A likely endorsement as PM by Hazare will add weight to the chief minister’s credentials as a possible leader of a non- BJP and non-Congress front, putting her on the same pedestal as other claimants to a third front leadership position. Along with regional leaders like AIADMK chief J Jayalalitha, Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik, BSP’s Mayawati, the Trinamool boss is seen as a likely gainer in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. She is seen to be better placed in comparison to other regional stalwarts like Mulayam Singh Yadav and Nitish Kumar. “We wish you all success in your current initiative in projecting the ideals to political parties and striving to achieve success in ensuring transparency in public life,” Roy wrote.