New Delhi (TIP) – India’s diesel exports to Europe jumped an astonishing 137% year-on-year in August—soaring to 242,000 barrels per day, as European buyers scramble to stock up ahead of an EU ban on fuels refined from Russian crude set to take effect in January 2026.
This sharp uptick, reported by The Economic Times, underscores mounting contradictions in global energy and foreign policy responses .
European nations appear to be reacting to the looming ban, targeting fuels refined from Russian oil—a move that could severely hinder Indian refiners like Reliance Industries. The surge in demand reflects both a hedge against disruption and a tacit acceptance of fuel origins India is soon expected to reject.
Data from Kpler shows a 73% month-on-month rise and a 124% jump above the preceding 12-month average. Vortexa, another tracker, reports similarly staggering growth—228,316 bpd in August, up 166% year-on-year and 36% over July levels.
Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler who was quoted in the report, linked the spike to a surprise maintenance turnaround at Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands, saying: “Exports rose sharply as Shell’s Pernis refinery advanced its planned turnaround from 2026. This has surprised the market.” Many European buyers appear to be front-loading purchases to offset short-term supply glitches.
Adding to the irony, U.S. President Donald Trump has urged European leaders to stop buying Russian oil—warning that continued purchases are helping fund Russia’s war in Ukraine. Yet, these very markets are now absorbing Indian diesel, much of it refined from Russian crude, exposing a glaring hypocrisy in sanctions enforcement.
India’s total diesel exports hit 603,000 bpd in August, up 17% from both July and the same month last year.
The late August push, particularly to Rotterdam, appears to be covering volume lost due to unexpected refinery maintenance, said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modelling at Kpler. “Exports rose sharply as Shell’s Pernis (Netherlands) refinery advanced its planned turnaround from 2026. This has surprised the market,” he said.
An industry executive said that advancing maintenance could also be preparation for the post-January market, when Indian fuels refined from Russian oil may no longer enter Europe. India has meanwhile come under heavy criticism from senior US officials, who accused its refiners of profiteering by buying discounted Russian crude and reselling it after processing to the West, thereby funding Moscow’s war machine. India has rejected this charge, arguing that the West can simply stop buying Indian fuels if it objects.
Indian exporters are expected to see continued strong demand from Europe this year. “European buyers may accelerate liftings from India given that Middle Eastern refineries will be having a high maintenance in October-November, echoing the stockpiling seen ahead of the February 2023 EU ban on Russian products,” Ritola said.
Europe counts Middle Eastern refiners as key suppliers.
Driven by the surge in European shipments, India’s total diesel exports increased to 603,000 bpd in August, up about 17% from both July and the year-ago period, according to Kpler.
When announcing sanctions in July, the EU said importers would have to provide evidence of the country of origin of the crude used in refining products from third countries. However, uncertainties remain around how the import curb will be implemented.