New Delhi (TIP): India is in the midst of a second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Considering the duration from the present level of daily new cases to the peak India saw last year, the country is expected to reach the high in the second half of April. The second wave, which could last until the end of May, could see an addition of 25 lakh cases if trends till March 23 are taken into consideration.

These projections are part of findings of a State Bank of India (SBI) research report titled ‘The second wave of infections: The beginning of the end’ by Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh.

In the report, Ghosh assessed that the duration of the second Covi-19 wave might last up to 100 days starting from Feb 15, while he added that vaccination is a more effective way than lockdown to beat the pandemic.

“Though global Covid-19 experience shows the second wave much higher in intensity than the first wave, presence of vaccine makes the difference currently. But India will be able to manage the situation better,” the report said.

India reported 53,476 cases in a day on March 25, the highest since November 6, 2020 — Maharashtra and Punjab being the worst-affected states.

The daily spike in coronavirus cases during the peak in the second wave could be much higher than last year, the report warns as it cites France which saw the peak of daily cases around 11.5 times more than the first wave.

The only silver lining this time, according to the report, is the availability of vaccines against Covid-19.

The report argued that if one considers the number of days taken to reach the current level from the lowest level of daily new cases witnessed on February 21, the time it took for the second Covid-19 wave to hit India is similar to what happened in the first wave.

“However, the difference lies in the speed of spread of infection in states like Gujarat, MP, Maharashtra, Punjab and Chhattisgarh, where the cases have increased at a much faster pace during the current second wave,” the report stated.

Considering the number of days from the current level of daily new cases to the peak level during the first wave, India might reach the peak in the second half of April, the report says and adds that the entire duration of the second wave might last up to 100 days counted (from Feb 15). A district-wise analysis in the report revealed that cases have again started rising in the top 15 districts of India, mostly urban, while the spread in rural districts is almost stable.

It says that cases are largely localised and concentrated and while Rajasthan, Gujarat, Kerala, Uttarakhand, Haryana have vaccinated more than 20 per cent of their elderly population, other states with a higher elderly population (>60 years) like Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and West Bengal have vaccinated a lesser percentage.

The report points out that Kerala had the maximum number of worst-affected districts in January 2021. However, all districts in this top-10 list are now rural districts of Maharashtra.

Recommending a strong push to the vaccination programme, the report says, “If the daily vaccine inoculation increases to 40-45 lakh from the current maximum level of 34 lakh, then we can vaccinate our population above 45 years in four months from now.”

The SBI report also proposes restrictions to prevent the spread of Covid-19. “Air travel has slowly inched towards the level it was at…However, a plethora of new variants emerging still make a case for being wary about the overall recovery in air travel,” the report noted.

Source: India Today