New York (TIP): Oil prices surged Thursday, Nov 5, recovering some of Wednesday’s staggering losses as traders reconsidered whether the U.S. midterm election results would actually bring a swift end to the Iran war.
Brent crude had climbed to $98.01 per barrel by early afternoon, gaining $3.39, or 3.58%, while West Texas Intermediate rose $2.21, or 2.51%, to $90.33. Both benchmarks continued climbing later in the session. The rebound followed Wednesday’s extraordinary selloff, when Brent plunged $8.98, or 8.7%, to settle at $94.62. WTI shed $7.97, or 8.3%, closing at $88.12. Both benchmarks recorded their lowest settlements since August 31.
The catalyst was the Democratic sweep of both chambers of Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections, which prompted speculation that President Donald Trump would face greater pressure to end the eight-month conflict with Iran.
That speculation helped drive Brent down roughly 18% this week, with traders aggressively shedding positions as expectations for an eventual diplomatic settlement increased.
But by Thursday, the prospects for a quick resolution appeared considerably less certain.
Eurasia Group lowered its estimated probability of a negotiated agreement to just 10%, down from 20%, while putting the likelihood of renewed U.S. strikes at 60%.
Meanwhile, shipping risks haven’t disappeared. Reuters reported at least five vessel incidents in the Persian Gulf since Sunday with threats to commercial traffic persisting despite a recovery in crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is reviewing proposals delivered through regional mediators, although Washington and Tehran remain divided over the conditions for an agreement.
Wednesday’s collapse was amplified by heavy liquidation in crude futures, according to market participants cited by Bloomberg. With prices approaching technically oversold territory, Thursday’s recovery may reflect traders reversing some of those positions.
The physical oil market has changed considerably as Gulf crude exports have recovered toward pre-war levels, albeit at higher transportation costs. But the geopolitical risk surrounding those shipments remains unresolved.
Iran Reports More Tanker Fires in Strait of Hormuz
Two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Thursday, as Iran continues to report a growing number of incidents with vessels trying to transit the Strait on routes unauthorized by the Islamic Republic.
One of the oil tankers hit a naval mine while it was attempting to move south of the Strait. Another tanker caught fire as it was on its way out in the eastern part of the Strait, and a tugboat that had approached it to help also caught fire, according to Iran’s elite force.
Separately, UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which is affiliated with the Royal Navy, said on Thursday that it had received a report of an incident 50 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, in which a tanker has been struck by two unidentified projectiles. The status of the crew, damage assessment, and environmental impact are unconfirmed at present, UKMTO said early on Thursday.
Attacks on vessels in the region have intensified in recent weeks, while crude oil flows have dipped from recent highs.
IRGC on Wednesday said that four oil tankers were destroyed after hitting naval mines in an area south of the Strait of Hormuz proscribed by Iran as prohibited for navigation.
While flows have recovered substantially from the lows in the spring, the security situation in and near the Strait of Hormuz has actually deteriorated, with a higher number of attacks on tankers in recent weeks.
Sensex opens in red day after 2,000-point spike; rout in global markets
Mumbai (TIP): Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty opened in the red on Friday, Nov 6, following their six-day winning streak, following a sharp tech selloff in global markets.
Sensex fell 227 points and Nifty opened about 104 points lower, triggered by a global rout in technology stocks and mounting concerns over slowing investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
This came after both indexes posted their biggest single-day gains in seven months on Thursday, buoyed by falling crude oil prices and strong foreign fund inflows. Both had gained for six sessions in a row.
The BSE Sensex rallied nearly 2,009 points and the NSE Nifty surged 576 points on Thursday, even as results of the United States midterm elections handed control of the Congress to the Democratic Party.
In the past six consecutive sessions, the Sensex had surged 6,063.98 points, or 8.27 per cent, while the Nifty had rallied 1,837.75 points, or 8 per cent. On Thursday, the 30-share BSE Sensex opened about 1,300 points up, and zoomed 2,008.61 points, or 2.60 per cent, to settle at 79,310.01, according to news agency PTI.
The 50-share Nifty surged 576 points, or 2.40 per cent on Thursday, to end at 24,536.60. Nifty also saw a three-month high on Thursday amid steady foreign fund inflows and a sharp rally in the US markets, which boosted investor sentiments and buying across sectors.
Asian stocks also declined after the tech sell-off, with Japan’s stock benchmark tumbling more than 6 per cent after trading opened Friday, according to the Associated Press.
However, Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei 225 recovered some of those initial losses, trading 5.7 per cent lower at 57,576.63 by midday. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 7.4 per cent to 4,985.99. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.7 per cent to 24,630.03.
This came after the S&P 500 on Wall Street fell 4.4 per cent Thursday in what turned out to be its worst day since US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement in April 2025. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 1,833 points, or 3.4 per cent, and the Nasdaq composite fell 5.5 per cent.
US stocks plunged on Thursday as investors dumped AI stocks, even as the midterms brought a bloc of artificial-intelligence skeptics into power, the Wall Street Journal reported.
This led to a stock-market wipeout over fears of more AI scrutiny, particularly on data center construction, according to news agency Reuters. Investor fears that the Democrats’ victory could stall AI infrastructure expansion led to a decline of more than 500 points in the Nasdaq Composite.
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