4 days before the midterms, the veteran of US politics hazards a guess about the Nov 6 elections. Keenly aware of the “anything can happen” syndrome , he makes a prediction, albeit hesitatingly, that Democrats are likely to wrest the House while Republicans may continue to have a superiority in the Senate. Well, we will know the outcome in the next 4 days.- EDITOR
It has been customary for the opponent of President’s party to win in the midterm elections. As of today, almost all polls are predicting that the Democrats are favored to take back the House from the Republicans. It must be pointed out that nobody predicted in 2016 that the most popular candidate, Hillary Clinton would be defeated by a newcomer Donald Trump. All predictions by all pollsters, pundits and the mass media were 100% wrong. Therefore, it is safe to conclude that it is impossible to predict President Trump, who is the leader of the Republican Party. He is one of the most important factors for the midterm election. What he says and does have an impact, good or bad.
Usually the polls keep on tightening as the voting day approaches. It happens fast and more within a week before the election. In 2016, the polls were tightening and changing every day in favor of Trump in the battleground states of PA, WI, OH, MI, MN, IW. The media refused to take this into account and publicize. If the media is not honest, people suffer. There is a reason why President Trump calls it ‘fake media’.
IMMIGRATION was an important factor for the 2016 Presidential election. President Trump capitalized on this issue. Because of his aggressive stand against illegal immigration and measures he is recommending to stop illegal immigration, polls show that more Independents and some Democrats are supporting President Trump.
President Trump’s decision to use military to defend the open border is gaining support of the voters.
ECONOMY: We had 4.2% GDP growth in the 2ndquarter and 3.5% in the third quarter. We are enjoying the lowest unemployment of 3.7%. Unemployment amongst all the minorities, especially the Blacks is the lowest historically speaking. The wages and profits have been gaining. America first policy seems to be benefiting the USA in trade, jobs, manufacturing and even in foreign policy. President Trump’s economy has 70% approval.
PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL: President Trump’s approval is much higher than when he got elected. Now he has 47% approval, much higher than that of Obama or Bush during the same time of their presidencies. This should reflect on the polls. 90% of the Republicans support Trump now. This is also much higher than the figure in 2016. The Republicans, some Democrats, and many Independents have also been positively impacted by Trump’s appointment of two Supreme Court Judges.
The Whites are still the majority. Majority of the Whites support the GOP. Majority of women support the Republicans. Majority of college educated women support the Democrats. But there are more non-college educated voters than the college educated.
The new voters under 20 are likely to vote for the Democrats. Majority of the minority voters will be voting for the Democrats.
HEALTHCARE: The Democrats have made this an issue and it is helping them in the polls.
It is difficult to predict what happens between now and November 6. The dynamics of news cycles, President Trump’s rallies, last minute surprises (domestic and international) all could contribute to tightening the polls till the last minute. If the turn out is larger than normal for midterm elections, it should help the Democrats to easily gain 23 seats in the Congress and take back the House from the Republicans. The GOP is more likely to retain its majority in the U.S. Senate and may even add a seat or two.
(The author is Chairman, Asian American Republican Committee (founded 1988) is from Scarsdale, N.Y.)